TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13118249
Played Sep 12Finished
Marcin Lach
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119117––––
Filip Witczak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:35 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Lach to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
116119117––––
H2H Marcin Lach 1–2 Filip Witczak Marcin Lach has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Witczak beat Lach 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:35What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Witczak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lach 1395 vs Witczak 1411
Witczak
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lach 20% vs Witczak 60%
Witczak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lach 40% vs Witczak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lach -1 · Witczak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Witczak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lach form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLach 1.83 / Witczak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Witczak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13118249
Lach1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Witczak1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLach1wins
AwayWitczak2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderWitczak leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLach33.3%1 of 3
AwayWitczakn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lach3Witczak0n = 3Lach took 3 of 3
S2Lach1Witczak2n = 3Witczak took 2 of 3
S3Lach1Witczak2n = 3Witczak took 2 of 3
S4Lach0Witczak3n = 3Witczak took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricLachWitczakL − WBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match39.743.3−3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLachWitczakBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 221 vs 265 / 47462%55.9%137 / 221 vs 265 / 474Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WitczakLach 1.83/Witczak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Witczak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 12 · 07:10M. Lach—11119992F. Witczak—981111113
LJul 4 · 11:55M. Lach—115421F. Witczak—21111113
WJul 4 · 05:55M. Lach—117118113F. Witczak—81161192
M. Lach10
LSep 12 · 10:20M. Oracz1.861111153M. Lach1.8073130WSep 12 · 09:30D. Morawiec2.02611621M. Lach1.6511611113LSep 12 · 08:45M. Lach1.908911111W. Wojtaszczyk1.8011119133LSep 12 · 07:10M. Lach1.9011119992F. Witczak1.80981111113LSep 12 · 06:20J. Wieczerzak1.951111113M. Lach1.709980LSep 6 · 16:20M. Lach1.6071040R. Piechnik2.151112113WSep 6 · 15:05M. Lach1.65131112113R. Wojcik2.101161471WSep 6 · 13:55M. Lach1.6911511113W. Wojtaszczyk2.01411491WSep 6 · 12:45K. Slawinski1.75781181M. Lach1.9511118113LSep 6 · 11:55M. Lach1.86911991M. Oracz1.8011711113
F. Witczak10
WSep 12 · 10:40J. Wieczerzak1.831157101F. Witczak1.8681111123WSep 12 · 09:55W. Wojtaszczyk1.77119741F. Witczak1.9591111113LSep 12 · 07:55M. Oracz1.731113163F. Witczak1.92711140WSep 12 · 07:10M. Lach1.9011119992F. Witczak1.80981111113LSep 12 · 05:30D. Morawiec1.8611811123F. Witczak1.807118101WAug 29 · 17:05F. Witczak1.351111113R. Adach2.855750WAug 29 · 15:30F. Witczak1.9011116113K. Slawinski1.80371181LAug 29 · 14:20F. Witczak1.83512541M. Oracz1.86111011113LAug 29 · 12:45F. Witczak2.7571141172P. Jedrzejak1.38119117113WAug 29 · 11:30F. Witczak1.871211143D. Morawiec1.83109120
Upcoming Matches
M. Lach
Sep 12 · 12:45M. Lach1.83M. Oracz1.81—Sep 12 · 14:20M. Lach1.76J. Wieczerzak1.90—Sep 12 · 15:30M. Lach1.70D. Morawiec1.96—Sep 12 · 17:05M. Lach1.88W. Wojtaszczyk1.76—Sep 13 · 03:50M. Lach2.20S. Szostok1.61—Sep 13 · 04:55M. Lach—W. Wojtaszczyk——Sep 13 · 06:30M. Lach2.38A. Cichocki1.53—Sep 13 · 08:10M. Lach1.83J. Wieczerzak1.83—Sep 13 · 09:50M. Lach1.61Z. Sobkow2.20—Sep 13 · 11:50M. Lach2.20S. Szostok1.61—
F. Witczak
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