TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13112022
Played Sep 11Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.60
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116117––––
Pawel Kurek
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:34 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
118116117––––
H2H Sebastian Szostok 15–6 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 6 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:34What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Szostok
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-6 in 21
Szostok
Correct
gap of 9 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1464 vs Kurek 1366
Szostok
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 40% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 40% vs Kurek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok -3 · Kurek +1
Szostok
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.60 / Kurek 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Szostok)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13112022
Szostok1.60
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As favourite64% won 333 of 521
Up 2–0, closes it94% 125 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it78% 214 of 273
Kurek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 122 of 315
Down 0–1, comes back23% 41 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzostok7wins
AwayKurek3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSzostok leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostok85.7%6 of 7
AwayKurek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok7Kurek3n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S2Szostok9Kurek1n = 10Szostok took 9 of 10
S3Szostok7Kurek3n = 10Szostok took 7 of 10
S4Szostok2Kurek3n = 5Kurek took 3 of 5
S5Szostok2Kurek3n = 5Kurek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzostokKurekS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.834.8+6.0per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime929 / 1576 vs 397 / 79159%50.2%929 / 1576 vs 397 / 791Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.60/Kurek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.2%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 22:10S. Szostok—911914113P. Kurek—115111272
WAug 14 · 19:40S. Szostok—1211113P. Kurek—10890
WAug 9 · 08:45S. Szostok—1111113P. Kurek—9770
WJul 24 · 09:25S. Szostok—1111113P. Kurek—6670
WJul 24 · 03:25S. Szostok—111198113P. Kurek—78111162
LJul 15 · 11:00S. Szostok—51111682P. Kurek—115511113
LJul 15 · 04:55S. Szostok—79111172P. Kurek—111158113
WJun 30 · 21:00S. Szostok—1111113P. Kurek—8880
LJun 15 · 11:25S. Szostok—111110662P. Kurek—791211113
WJun 15 · 05:15S. Szostok—1911113P. Kurek—17460
S. Szostok10
WSep 11 · 13:10S. Szostok1.851111113G. Wichowski1.809770WSep 11 · 12:20P. Mecik2.7510911111S. Szostok1.3612115133LSep 11 · 09:30S. Szostok1.866101131R. Skotniczny1.8011124113LSep 11 · 08:20S. Szostok1.38711111152P. Mecik2.65119139113LSep 11 · 06:45S. Szostok1.87129111272J. Pruszkowski1.831411710113WSep 11 · 05:30S. Szostok1.90911911113G. Wichowski1.8011911582WSep 8 · 16:20K. Slawinski1.67111013151S. Szostok2.0041215173LSep 8 · 15:30M. Baron2.25121210113S. Szostok1.5510101241LSep 8 · 14:45S. Szostok1.78811671J. Pruszkowski1.9111811113WSep 8 · 13:10S. Szostok1.531051111113W. Buczynski2.3612119472
P. Kurek10
WSep 11 · 13:30P. Mecik2.267860P. Kurek1.521111113LSep 11 · 11:55J. Pruszkowski1.65111149113P. Kurek2.1095111192WSep 11 · 09:55P. Kurek2.05211119143G. Wichowski1.70118511122LSep 11 · 08:45R. Skotniczny1.6091111113P. Kurek2.10117891WSep 11 · 07:30P. Mecik2.1511361192P. Kurek1.60711118113LSep 11 · 05:55J. Pruszkowski1.55111015113P. Kurek2.308121361WSep 10 · 13:55R. Idaczyk2.10115921P. Kurek1.6761111113LSep 10 · 13:05L. Oracz1.5041111113P. Kurek2.50114391WSep 10 · 12:15P. Kurek1.731511113W. Urban2.0013960LSep 10 · 10:35P. Kurek2.757590K. Slawinski1.401111113
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