TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13105302
Played Sep 10Finished
Rafal Idaczyk
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116511911211––
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:13 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Idaczyk above · Pawel Kurek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 66 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Pawel Kurek at 62.8%
66 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Idaczyk 6–12 Pawel Kurek Rafal Idaczyk has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:13What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-12 in 18
Kurek
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Idaczyk 1423 vs Kurek 1357
Idaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Idaczyk 40% vs Kurek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Idaczyk 70% vs Kurek 40%
Idaczyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Idaczyk -3 · Kurek -1
Idaczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIdaczyk 2.10 / Kurek 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Kurek)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13105302
Idaczyk2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 106 of 278
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 108
Kurek1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite66% won 208 of 314
Up 2–0, closes it94% 100 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it84% 147 of 175
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIdaczyk5wins
AwayKurek5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIdaczyk80%4 of 5
AwayKurek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Idaczyk5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S2Idaczyk6Kurek4n = 10Idaczyk took 6 of 10
S3Idaczyk7Kurek3n = 10Idaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Idaczyk3Kurek2n = 5Idaczyk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricIdaczykKurekI − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.834.7−0.9per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIdaczykKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 972 vs 394 / 78649.4%50.1%480 / 972 vs 394 / 786Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekIdaczyk 2.10/Kurek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 04:00R. Idaczyk—1111113P. Kurek—7860
WAug 19 · 05:35R. Idaczyk—1111113P. Kurek—9870
WJul 21 · 04:30R. Idaczyk—1111113P. Kurek—5760
LJul 16 · 20:00R. Idaczyk—4340P. Kurek—1111113
LJun 29 · 10:35R. Idaczyk—4111031P. Kurek—11812113
LJun 29 · 03:00R. Idaczyk—107111172P. Kurek—121195113
LJun 7 · 07:10R. Idaczyk—671161P. Kurek—11117113
WJun 3 · 07:10R. Idaczyk—1111113P. Kurek—9790
WMay 26 · 07:10R. Idaczyk—71115133P. Kurek—11613111
LMay 13 · 18:45R. Idaczyk—15841172P. Kurek—1311119113
R. Idaczyk10
LSep 10 · 12:40R. Idaczyk2.1086100M. Sikon1.671111123LSep 10 · 11:25R. Idaczyk2.6312850K. Slawinski1.441411113LSep 10 · 10:10L. Oracz1.53111176153R. Idaczyk2.38821111132WSep 10 · 09:25R. Idaczyk1.831111113W. Urban1.834970WSep 10 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.6311101011113L. Oracz1.4491212752WSep 10 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.001111312113M. Sikon1.73138111082WSep 10 · 05:30R. Idaczyk2.75611116133K. Slawinski1.40117911112WSep 10 · 04:00P. Kurek1.537860R. Idaczyk2.381111113WSep 10 · 03:20R. Idaczyk1.831111133W. Urban1.8356110WSep 8 · 13:55R. Idaczyk1.731111153P. Przewlocki2.0059130
P. Kurek10
LSep 10 · 13:05L. Oracz1.5041111113P. Kurek2.50114391WSep 10 · 12:15P. Kurek1.731511113W. Urban2.0013960LSep 10 · 10:35P. Kurek2.757590K. Slawinski1.401111113WSep 10 · 09:50M. Sikon2.63116461P. Kurek1.4451111113LSep 10 · 08:35P. Kurek1.80913891W. Urban1.91111111113WSep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek2.3861111113L. Oracz1.53116731WSep 10 · 05:50P. Kurek1.44981111113M. Sikon2.6311119882LSep 10 · 04:00P. Kurek1.537860R. Idaczyk2.381111113LSep 10 · 03:00P. Kurek2.63861151K. Slawinski1.4411113113LSep 9 · 14:20P. Kurek2.38711261P. Gumulinski1.5311311113
Upcoming Matches
R. Idaczyk1 of 1 neutral
P. Kurek
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