TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104035
Played Sep 10Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611116117113––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:37 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 66 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 63.2%
66 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 5–16 Lukasz Oracz Pawel Kurek has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:37What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-16 in 21
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1381 vs Oracz 1522
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 141 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 40% vs Oracz 60%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 40% vs Oracz 60%
Oracz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek +1 · Oracz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Oracz)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 2.38 / Oracz 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Oracz)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13104035
Kurek2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 121 of 312
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 102
Oracz1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 376 of 596
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it83% 294 of 355
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek3wins
AwayOracz7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek50%2 of 4
AwayOracz83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Kurek5Oracz5n = 10split evenly
S3Kurek4Oracz6n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S4Kurek2Oracz5n = 7Oracz took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekOraczK − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.137.0−4.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime392 / 781 vs 823 / 147950.2%55.7%392 / 781 vs 823 / 1479Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczKurek 2.38/Oracz 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.2%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek—61111113L. Oracz—116731
LSep 7 · 01:10P. Kurek—3280L. Oracz—1111113
LSep 6 · 17:30P. Kurek—61411662L. Oracz—1112511113
WSep 1 · 14:45P. Kurek—11611153L. Oracz—8118131
LSep 1 · 11:05P. Kurek—1211791L. Oracz—14911113
LAug 20 · 11:00P. Kurek—117681L. Oracz—91111113
LAug 20 · 04:55P. Kurek—119691L. Oracz—91111113
LAug 15 · 01:45P. Kurek—5770L. Oracz—1111113
LAug 14 · 16:15P. Kurek—611531L. Oracz—11911103
WAug 8 · 02:35P. Kurek—1111113L. Oracz—6650
P. Kurek10
WSep 10 · 05:50P. Kurek1.44981111113M. Sikon2.6311119882LSep 10 · 04:00P. Kurek1.537860R. Idaczyk2.381111113LSep 10 · 03:00P. Kurek2.63861151K. Slawinski1.4411113113LSep 9 · 14:20P. Kurek2.38711261P. Gumulinski1.5311311113WSep 9 · 12:40P. Przewlocki2.1011611992P. Kurek1.67911511113LSep 9 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.831111104113P. Kurek1.8369121192WSep 9 · 11:00P. Kurek1.4411117113K. Schaniel2.63861181LSep 9 · 09:50P. Kurek2.10117861R. Gajda1.6761111113WSep 9 · 08:10P. Kurek2.50117911123P. Gumulinski1.50811119102LSep 9 · 06:30P. Przewlocki2.1071112163P. Kurek1.6711710141
L. Oracz10
WSep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.7312411113W. Urban2.001011891WSep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz2.0012815113K. Slawinski1.7310111391LSep 10 · 03:40M. Sikon3.5081211113L. Oracz1.281110891WSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100LSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113LSep 8 · 23:45L. Oracz1.50711581G. Jurowicz2.5011711113WSep 8 · 22:10L. Oracz1.8011611113M. Koczyba1.91411961LSep 8 · 21:00L. Oracz1.839790P. Adamus1.831111113WSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113WSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113
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