TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103670
Played Sep 10Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210411118119––
Wojciech Urban
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 76 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 58.2%
76 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 14–6 Wojciech Urban Wojciech Urban has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-6 in 20
Oracz
Correct
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1522 vs Urban 1437
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Urban 80%
Urban
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 60% vs Urban 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -1 · Urban +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.73 / Urban 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Oracz)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13103670
Oracz1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 376 of 596
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it83% 294 of 355
Urban2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 228 of 560
Down 0–1, comes back20% 60 of 308
Down 0–2, comes back6% 12 of 189
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz7wins
AwayUrban3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%3 of 3
AwayUrban42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz3Urban7n = 10Urban took 7 of 10
S2Oracz7Urban3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S3Oracz8Urban2n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S4Oracz4Urban3n = 7Oracz took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczUrbanO − UBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.634.2+1.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime823 / 1479 vs 749 / 158555.7%47.3%823 / 1479 vs 749 / 1585Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.73/Urban 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.1%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 17:55L. Oracz—1111123W. Urban—75100
LAug 5 · 05:10L. Oracz—511841W. Urban—11511113
WAug 3 · 05:05L. Oracz—1311113W. Urban—11870
WAug 2 · 20:45L. Oracz—91111113W. Urban—117981
LJul 28 · 09:00L. Oracz—5711101W. Urban—11118123
WJul 28 · 04:30L. Oracz—51111113W. Urban—115871
WJul 23 · 03:10L. Oracz—511112113W. Urban—11371182
WJul 22 · 05:35L. Oracz—12811113W. Urban—1011851
LJul 16 · 01:10L. Oracz—10370W. Urban—1211113
WJul 6 · 24:45L. Oracz—111111113W. Urban—139991
L. Oracz10
LSep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek2.3861111113L. Oracz1.53116731WSep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz2.0012815113K. Slawinski1.7310111391LSep 10 · 03:40M. Sikon3.5081211113L. Oracz1.281110891WSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100LSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113LSep 8 · 23:45L. Oracz1.50711581G. Jurowicz2.5011711113WSep 8 · 22:10L. Oracz1.8011611113M. Koczyba1.91411961LSep 8 · 21:00L. Oracz1.839790P. Adamus1.831111113WSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113WSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113
W. Urban10
WSep 10 · 04:40M. Sikon3.25411741W. Urban1.3311711113LSep 10 · 03:20R. Idaczyk1.831111133W. Urban1.8356110WSep 9 · 16:40B. Madej2.7569100W. Urban1.361111123WSep 9 · 15:55K. Adamus1.67511881W. Urban2.1011511113WSep 9 · 13:55S. Juzek1.941311571W. Urban1.71111311113LSep 9 · 13:10W. Buczynski2.0571111113W. Urban1.66119491WSep 9 · 11:30M. Rus2.9011440W. Urban1.331311113LSep 9 · 10:40B. Madej2.3511115133W. Urban1.524911111WSep 9 · 09:55W. Buczynski1.85121251132W. Urban1.8010101113113WSep 9 · 07:55S. Juzek1.80121217672W. Urban1.8514101511113
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