TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13101485
Played Sep 9Finished
Maksymilian Rus
Home
2.90
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113411411––––
Wojciech Urban
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:38 and never touched — 68.0% is still 68.0%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
68.0%
68.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
1113411411––––
H2H Maksymilian Rus 1–0 Wojciech Urban Wojciech Urban has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Rus beat Urban 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:38What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (69%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rus 1138 vs Urban 1447
Urban
Correct
both rated, 309 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rus 60% vs Urban 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rus 40% vs Urban 70%
Urban
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rus -2 · Urban -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Urban) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRus 2.90 / Urban 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Urban)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13101485
Rus2.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 71 of 237
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 157
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 94
Urban1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 180 of 310
Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it73% 127 of 173
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeRus1wins
AwayUrban0wins
Rus leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricRusUrbanR − UBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.037.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRusUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 391 vs 744 / 157732%47.2%125 / 391 vs 744 / 1577Avg sets wonper match1.61.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanRus 2.90/Urban 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.4%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 9 · 07:10M. Rus—11115113W. Urban—991181
M. Rus10
WSep 9 · 12:45M. Rus2.701113123S. Juzek1.37811100LSep 9 · 10:20S. Juzek1.41811911153M. Rus2.60114113132LSep 9 · 09:30K. Adamus1.21111197113M. Rus3.7096111192WSep 9 · 08:45M. Rus2.5561111113W. Buczynski1.41118981WSep 9 · 07:10M. Rus2.9011115113W. Urban1.33991181WSep 9 · 06:20B. Madej1.857911101M. Rus1.8511116123WSep 2 · 17:05M. Rus2.701111113W. Buczynski1.377890LSep 2 · 15:30M. Rus3.1510990R. Gajda1.301211113LSep 2 · 14:20M. Rus2.201691161B. Madej1.57141113113LSep 2 · 12:45M. Rus3.703550S. Juzek1.221111113
W. Urban10
LSep 9 · 10:40B. Madej2.3511115133W. Urban1.524911111WSep 9 · 09:55W. Buczynski1.85121251132W. Urban1.8010101113113WSep 9 · 07:55S. Juzek1.80121217672W. Urban1.8514101511113LSep 9 · 07:10M. Rus2.9011115113W. Urban1.33991181WSep 9 · 05:30K. Adamus1.73911114102W. Urban1.98116911123WSep 8 · 14:20W. Urban3.4011811133M. Durda1.309117111WSep 8 · 12:40R. Idaczyk1.674930W. Urban2.101111113WSep 8 · 11:50P. Brozek1.838680W. Urban1.831111113WSep 8 · 11:00W. Urban2.25158126123P. Gumulinski1.5713111011102LSep 8 · 09:50W. Urban2.20151171172P. Przewlocki1.611313119113
Upcoming Matches
M. Rus
W. Urban1 of 10 neutral
Sep 9 · 13:10W. Urban1.66W. Buczynski2.05—Sep 9 · 13:55W. Urban1.71S. Juzek1.94—Sep 9 · 15:55W. Urban2.20K. Adamus1.57—Sep 9 · 16:40W. Urban1.36B. Madej2.75—Sep 10 · 03:20W. Urban—R. Idaczyk——Sep 10 · 04:40W. Urban1.57M. Sikon2.25—Sep 10 · 06:10W. Urban2.10L. Oracz1.67—Sep 10 · 07:20W. Urban2.63K. Slawinski1.44—Sep 10 · 08:35W. Urban2.00P. Kurek1.73—Sep 10 · 09:25W. Urban1.83R. Idaczyk1.83—
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