TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091570
Played Sep 8Finished
Rafal Idaczyk
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411911311––––
Wojciech Urban
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:27 and never touched — 60.6% is still 60.6%
Graded at full timeRafal Idaczyk to win
60.6%
60.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRafal Idaczyk above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 49 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Rafal Idaczyk at 60.6%
49 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Idaczyk 7–4 Wojciech Urban Wojciech Urban has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Urban beat Idaczyk 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:27What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Idaczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Idaczyk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Idaczyk 1377 vs Urban 1427
Urban
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Idaczyk 40% vs Urban 60%
Urban
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Idaczyk 50% vs Urban 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Idaczyk +1 · Urban +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Idaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIdaczyk 1.67 / Urban 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Idaczyk)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13091570
Idaczyk1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 115 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it96% 70 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it80% 92 of 115
Urban2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 218 of 548
Down 0–1, comes back20% 60 of 306
Down 0–2, comes back6% 12 of 187
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIdaczyk6wins
AwayUrban4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderIdaczyk leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIdaczyk75%6 of 8
AwayUrbann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Idaczyk8Urban2n = 10Idaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Idaczyk6Urban4n = 10Idaczyk took 6 of 10
S3Idaczyk4Urban6n = 10Urban took 6 of 10
S4Idaczyk4Urban2n = 6Idaczyk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricIdaczykUrbanI − UBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match34.832.0+2.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIdaczykUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime473 / 961 vs 739 / 157049.2%47.1%473 / 961 vs 739 / 1570Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IdaczykIdaczyk 1.67/Urban 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Idaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 06:30R. Idaczyk—1211761W. Urban—14911113
WAug 15 · 04:25R. Idaczyk—11511113W. Urban—911791
WAug 14 · 04:25R. Idaczyk—1111123W. Urban—78100
WJul 21 · 06:05R. Idaczyk—111110113W. Urban—771241
LJul 18 · 11:25R. Idaczyk—11851152W. Urban—811118113
WJun 25 · 04:25R. Idaczyk—111110113W. Urban—551261
LJun 3 · 08:00R. Idaczyk—118761W. Urban—21111113
WMay 27 · 07:10R. Idaczyk—1111113W. Urban—7830
WApr 19 · 04:00R. Idaczyk—1111113W. Urban—5970
LFeb 22 · 09:20R. Idaczyk—9160W. Urban—1111113
R. Idaczyk10
WSep 8 · 11:25R. Idaczyk5.0071111133M. Durda1.141178111LSep 8 · 10:10P. Brozek1.60101111113R. Idaczyk2.10127961LSep 8 · 09:25R. Idaczyk2.3811119552P. Gumulinski1.53581111113WSep 8 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.101111113P. Brozek1.679570LSep 8 · 06:30R. Idaczyk1.671211761W. Urban2.1014911113LSep 8 · 05:15R. Idaczyk3.505480M. Durda1.281111113LSep 8 · 04:10P. Przewlocki2.001111113R. Idaczyk1.735650WSep 8 · 03:25R. Idaczyk2.251111127113P. Gumulinski1.5728141162WSep 6 · 08:00G. Sawicki1.8511911362R. Idaczyk1.80911911113WSep 6 · 07:10W. Pytlas1.494570R. Idaczyk2.451111113
W. Urban10
WSep 8 · 11:50P. Brozek1.838680W. Urban1.831111113WSep 8 · 11:00W. Urban2.25158126123P. Gumulinski1.5713111011102LSep 8 · 09:50W. Urban2.20151171172P. Przewlocki1.611313119113LSep 8 · 08:10W. Urban2.75311110M. Durda1.401113133WSep 8 · 06:30R. Idaczyk1.671211761W. Urban2.1014911113WSep 8 · 05:40P. Przewlocki1.804890W. Urban1.911111113WSep 8 · 04:55W. Urban2.2511131111113P. Gumulinski1.5751561352LSep 8 · 03:50W. Urban2.0091111672P. Brozek1.73118611113WSep 7 · 13:55W. Urban1.80111177113M. Adamus1.9167111162LSep 7 · 12:40W. Urban2.50815581K. Hetnar1.50111311113
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