TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091574
Played Sep 8Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
31111131113––––
Michal Durda
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:27 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Durda to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingWojciech Urban above · Michal Durda below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 62 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Michal Durda at 58.9%
62 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Urban 1–1 Michal Durda Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Durda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Urban 1400 vs Durda 1657
Durda
Correct
both rated, 257 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 80% vs Durda 100%
Durda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 60% vs Durda 90%
Durda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban +3 · Durda +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Durda) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Durda form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 2.75 / Durda 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Durda)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13091574
Urban2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 218 of 548
Down 0–1, comes back20% 60 of 306
Down 0–2, comes back6% 12 of 187
Durda1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite78% won 180 of 230
Up 2–0, closes it98% 90 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it93% 126 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeUrban1wins
AwayDurda1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricUrbanDurdaU − DBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.538.0+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanDurdaBasisWin rate · lifetime737 / 1566 vs 192 / 24447.1%78.7%737 / 1566 vs 192 / 244Avg sets wonper match1.92.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.040.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaUrban 2.75/Durda 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Durda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 27 · 04:40W. Urban—71171192M. Durda—116118113
WJul 26 · 22:40W. Urban—1611113M. Durda—14690
W. Urban10
WSep 8 · 06:30R. Idaczyk1.671211761W. Urban2.1014911113WSep 8 · 05:40P. Przewlocki1.804890W. Urban1.911111113WSep 8 · 04:55W. Urban2.2511131111113P. Gumulinski1.5751561352LSep 8 · 03:50W. Urban2.0091111672P. Brozek1.73118611113WSep 7 · 13:55W. Urban1.80111177113M. Adamus1.9167111162LSep 7 · 12:40W. Urban2.50815581K. Hetnar1.50111311113LSep 7 · 11:25W. Urban1.6795111182R. Niemiec2.10111165113LSep 7 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek2.101110911113W. Urban1.6761211772WSep 7 · 09:25W. Urban1.80127148113P. Przewlocki1.911011121182WSep 4 · 08:45P. Mecik2.0549111182W. Urban1.66111155113
M. Durda10
LSep 8 · 09:00P. Brozek3.5061111113M. Durda1.28114981WSep 8 · 07:20P. Gumulinski2.2511911492M. Durda1.57911411113WSep 8 · 05:15R. Idaczyk3.505480M. Durda1.281111113WSep 8 · 04:30P. Brozek2.75511791M. Durda1.4011611113WSep 8 · 03:00P. Przewlocki3.7512810M. Durda1.251411113WSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113WSep 2 · 01:00I. Szymanski7.5013109121M. Durda1.07111211143WSep 2 · 24:10M. Durda1.281212123K. Schaniel3.501010100WSep 1 · 22:35M. Durda1.6111139123S. Szostok2.2051111101WSep 1 · 21:45O. Jadach2.507840M. Durda1.441111113
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