TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087272
Played Sep 7Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911511116115811
Rafal Niemiec
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingWojciech Urban above · Rafal Niemiec below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 88 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Wojciech Urban at 56.6%
88 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Urban 3–1 Rafal Niemiec Rafal Niemiec has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Urban
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Urban
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1382 vs Niemiec 1334
Urban
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 60% vs Niemiec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 50% vs Niemiec 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban -1 · Niemiec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Urban)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niemiec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.67 / Niemiec 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Urban)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13087272
Urban1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 178 of 306
Up 2–0, closes it96% 72 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it73% 125 of 171
Niemiec2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 22 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeUrban3wins
AwayNiemiec1wins
2 of 4 to a deciderUrban leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban66.7%2 of 3
AwayNiemiecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban3Niemiec1n = 4Urban took 3 of 4
S2Urban2Niemiec2n = 4split evenly
S3Urban4Niemiec0n = 4Urban took 4 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricUrbanNiemiecU − NBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match43.238.5+4.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanNiemiecBasisWin rate · lifetime733 / 1559 vs 158 / 25947%61%733 / 1559 vs 158 / 259Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanUrban 1.67/Niemiec 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Niemiec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 11 · 03:55W. Urban—1111123R. Niemiec—59100
WAug 10 · 21:55W. Urban—971112173R. Niemiec—1111910152
WJul 30 · 05:30W. Urban—1112143R. Niemiec—610120
LJul 30 · 24:00W. Urban—11611992R. Niemiec—511811113
W. Urban10
LSep 7 · 12:40W. Urban2.50815581K. Hetnar1.50111311113LSep 7 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek2.101110911113W. Urban1.6761211772WSep 7 · 09:25W. Urban1.80127148113P. Przewlocki1.911011121182WSep 4 · 08:45P. Mecik2.0549111182W. Urban1.66111155113WSep 4 · 07:35W. Urban1.83911811123Y. Fomin1.86118118102LSep 4 · 06:25A. Ruszkiewicz2.1011114143W. Urban1.606711121WSep 4 · 05:10M. Lebek1.5066111182W. Urban2.35111157113LSep 4 · 03:35M. Paszkiewicz2.401111113W. Urban1.507950LSep 3 · 08:20O. Sokolowski2.17101111113W. Urban1.59129371LSep 3 · 07:35A. Burkacki1.951111123W. Urban1.7553100
R. Niemiec10
WSep 7 · 10:35M. Adamus1.8013960R. Niemiec1.911511113WSep 7 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek1.806111051R. Niemiec1.9111412113LSep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91111575113R. Niemiec1.80913111192WSep 7 · 07:20P. Przewlocki1.5311961182R. Niemiec2.38911115113LSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:30J. Pruszkowski1.571111113R. Niemiec2.257950WSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113LSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113WSep 4 · 15:30R. Niemiec2.2512611113O. Jadach1.571011471LSep 4 · 14:20R. Niemiec1.85514123122W. Tobiasz1.8511121011143
Upcoming Matches
W. Urban
Sep 7 · 13:55W. Urban1.80M. Adamus1.91—Sep 8 · 03:50W. Urban2.00P. Brozek1.73—Sep 8 · 04:55W. Urban2.25P. Gumulinski1.57—Sep 8 · 05:40W. Urban1.83P. Przewlocki1.83—Sep 8 · 06:30W. Urban2.10R. Idaczyk1.67—Sep 8 · 08:10W. Urban2.63M. Durda1.44—Sep 8 · 09:50W. Urban1.83P. Przewlocki1.83—Sep 8 · 11:00W. Urban2.25P. Gumulinski1.57—Sep 8 · 11:50W. Urban2.00P. Brozek1.73—Sep 8 · 12:40W. Urban2.10R. Idaczyk1.67—
R. Niemiec
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