TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087252
Played Sep 7Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111513511811––
Krzysztof Hetnar
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Hetnar to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingWojciech Urban above · Krzysztof Hetnar below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 82 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Krzysztof Hetnar at 60.1%
82 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Urban 4–10 Krzysztof Hetnar Wojciech Urban has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:09What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hetnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-10 in 14
Hetnar
Correct
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1360 vs Hetnar 1448
Hetnar
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 60% vs Hetnar 40%
Urban
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 40% vs Hetnar 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban -2 · Hetnar +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Hetnar) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hetnar form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 2.50 / Hetnar 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Hetnar)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13087252
Urban2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 218 of 546
Down 0–1, comes back20% 60 of 304
Down 0–2, comes back6% 12 of 187
Hetnar1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 261 of 384
Up 2–0, closes it98% 146 of 149
Up 1–0, closes it85% 213 of 250
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrban3wins
AwayHetnar7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHetnar leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrbann = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHetnar75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban2Hetnar8n = 10Hetnar took 8 of 10
S2Urban5Hetnar5n = 10split evenly
S3Urban5Hetnar5n = 10split evenly
S4Urban4Hetnar4n = 8split evenly
S5Urban2Hetnar3n = 5Hetnar took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbanHetnarU − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.843.1−5.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanHetnarBasisWin rate · lifetime733 / 1561 vs 722 / 117447%61.5%733 / 1561 vs 722 / 1174Avg sets wonper match1.92.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarUrban 2.50/Hetnar 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hetnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 2 · 06:00W. Urban—8950K. Hetnar—1111113
LMar 31 · 19:35W. Urban—1011991K. Hetnar—12611113
LMar 31 · 06:25W. Urban—612111152K. Hetnar—111478113
WMar 10 · 20:35W. Urban—1111113K. Hetnar—9770
WFeb 13 · 07:25W. Urban—1011412133K. Hetnar—1281110112
WFeb 13 · 03:45W. Urban—771111193K. Hetnar—111193172
LJan 29 · 02:10W. Urban—41201172K. Hetnar—1110118113
LJan 23 · 03:20W. Urban—11711572K. Hetnar—211911113
LDec 4 · 07:25W. Urban—191291K. Hetnar—111110113
LNov 14 · 06:35W. Urban—412931K. Hetnar—111011113
W. Urban10
LSep 7 · 11:25W. Urban1.6795111182R. Niemiec2.10111165113LSep 7 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek2.101110911113W. Urban1.6761211772WSep 7 · 09:25W. Urban1.80127148113P. Przewlocki1.911011121182WSep 4 · 08:45P. Mecik2.0549111182W. Urban1.66111155113WSep 4 · 07:35W. Urban1.83911811123Y. Fomin1.86118118102LSep 4 · 06:25A. Ruszkiewicz2.1011114143W. Urban1.606711121WSep 4 · 05:10M. Lebek1.5066111182W. Urban2.35111157113LSep 4 · 03:35M. Paszkiewicz2.401111113W. Urban1.507950LSep 3 · 08:20O. Sokolowski2.17101111113W. Urban1.59129371LSep 3 · 07:35A. Burkacki1.951111123W. Urban1.7553100
K. Hetnar10
WSep 7 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek4.008550K. Hetnar1.221111113WSep 7 · 11:00K. Hetnar1.531311112113P. Przewlocki2.38111381192LSep 7 · 09:50K. Hetnar1.61511119102M. Adamus2.20115611123LSep 6 · 08:20K. Juszczyk1.9811711143K. Hetnar1.756117121LSep 6 · 07:35P. Slosarczyk4.101311113K. Hetnar1.1811940LSep 6 · 05:35G. Sawicki3.9511711113K. Hetnar1.20711861LSep 6 · 04:50R. Idaczyk2.951111153K. Hetnar1.3554130WSep 6 · 03:10W. Pytlas2.1668100K. Hetnar1.591111123LSep 4 · 02:00K. Hetnar1.5110101191K. Adamus2.3412129113WSep 4 · 24:45K. Hetnar1.681011811113M. Lebek2.0312211852
Upcoming Matches
W. Urban
Sep 8 · 03:50W. Urban2.00P. Brozek1.73—Sep 8 · 04:55W. Urban2.25P. Gumulinski1.57—Sep 8 · 05:40W. Urban1.91P. Przewlocki1.80—Sep 8 · 06:30W. Urban2.10R. Idaczyk1.67—Sep 8 · 08:10W. Urban2.63M. Durda1.44—Sep 8 · 09:50W. Urban1.91P. Przewlocki1.80—Sep 8 · 11:00W. Urban2.25P. Gumulinski1.57—Sep 8 · 11:50W. Urban2.00P. Brozek1.73—Sep 8 · 12:40W. Urban2.10R. Idaczyk1.67—Sep 8 · 14:20W. Urban—M. Durda——
K. Hetnar1 of 6 neutral
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