TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087064
Played Sep 7Finished
Krzysztof Hetnar
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111151169111012
Mariusz Adamus
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:19 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Hetnar above · Mariusz Adamus below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 91 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Mariusz Adamus at 55.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Hetnar 29–26 Mariusz Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 26 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:19What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hetnar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-26 in 55
Hetnar
Wrong
gap of 3 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hetnar 1449 vs Adamus 1317
Hetnar
Wrong
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hetnar 20% vs Adamus 80%
Adamus
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hetnar 40% vs Adamus 70%
Adamus
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hetnar -4 · Adamus +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Hetnar) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHetnar 1.61 / Adamus 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Hetnar)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13087064
Hetnar1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite68% won 261 of 384
Up 2–0, closes it98% 146 of 149
Up 1–0, closes it85% 213 of 250
Adamus2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 177 of 430
Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 223
Down 0–2, comes back10% 12 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHetnar6wins
AwayAdamus4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHetnar leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHetnar83.3%5 of 6
AwayAdamus75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hetnar6Adamus4n = 10Hetnar took 6 of 10
S2Hetnar5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S3Hetnar2Adamus8n = 10Adamus took 8 of 10
S4Hetnar3Adamus4n = 7Adamus took 4 of 7
S5Hetnar4Adamus0n = 4Hetnar took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHetnarAdamusH − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.436.0+2.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHetnarAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime719 / 1170 vs 787 / 162161.5%48.6%719 / 1170 vs 787 / 1621Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HetnarHetnar 1.61/Adamus 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Hetnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 4 · 06:45K. Hetnar—1181011113M. Adamus—61112292
LJul 31 · 09:50K. Hetnar—118761M. Adamus—91111113
LJul 16 · 11:30K. Hetnar—12760M. Adamus—1411113
LJul 16 · 10:20K. Hetnar—71190M. Adamus—1113113
WJun 21 · 04:25K. Hetnar—1111113M. Adamus—7650
LJun 19 · 13:55K. Hetnar—911871M. Adamus—11711113
WJun 19 · 07:55K. Hetnar—111186113M. Adamus—76111142
WJun 12 · 13:55K. Hetnar—116117113M. Adamus—71141162
WJun 12 · 07:55K. Hetnar—411811123M. Adamus—118117102
WJun 2 · 08:00K. Hetnar—11119113M. Adamus—641131
K. Hetnar10
LSep 6 · 08:20K. Juszczyk1.9811711143K. Hetnar1.756117121LSep 6 · 07:35P. Slosarczyk4.101311113K. Hetnar1.1811940LSep 6 · 05:35G. Sawicki3.9511711113K. Hetnar1.20711861LSep 6 · 04:50R. Idaczyk2.951111153K. Hetnar1.3554130WSep 6 · 03:10W. Pytlas2.1668100K. Hetnar1.591111123LSep 4 · 02:00K. Hetnar1.5110101191K. Adamus2.3412129113WSep 4 · 24:45K. Hetnar1.681011811113M. Lebek2.0312211852WSep 3 · 23:35K. Hetnar1.901111113M. Tkocz1.754840WSep 3 · 22:25A. Ruszkiewicz3.35121031182K. Hetnar1.271012117113LSep 3 · 21:35K. Hetnar1.295890G. Jurowicz3.301111113
M. Adamus10
LSep 7 · 10:35M. Adamus1.8013960R. Niemiec1.911511113WSep 7 · 08:35M. Adamus1.6711119113P. Przewlocki2.10591161WSep 7 · 06:55M. Adamus2.3851111123J. Pruszkowski1.531197101WSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130WSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100LSep 5 · 01:00M. Adamus1.57411881G. Sawicki2.2511911113WSep 4 · 23:45M. Adamus1.5081111133A. Szurgot2.351186111WSep 4 · 22:10M. Adamus1.831111113K. Schaniel1.836680
Upcoming Matches
K. Hetnar
Sep 7 · 11:50K. Hetnar1.22J. Kaczmarek4.00—Sep 7 · 12:40K. Hetnar1.50W. Urban2.50—Sep 7 · 14:20K. Hetnar1.53R. Niemiec2.38—Sep 8 · 03:35K. Hetnar—M. Cesarz——Sep 8 · 04:25K. Hetnar—J. Kaczmarek——Sep 8 · 05:35K. Hetnar—M. Adamus——Sep 8 · 06:45K. Hetnar—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 8 · 08:00K. Hetnar—R. Skotniczny——
M. Adamus
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