TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087331
Played Sep 7Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1315911611––––
Rafal Niemiec
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMariusz Adamus above · Rafal Niemiec below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 65 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Mariusz Adamus at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Adamus 2–2 Rafal Niemiec Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1346 vs Niemiec 1308
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 100% vs Niemiec 40%
Adamus
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 80% vs Niemiec 40%
Adamus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +5 · Niemiec +1
Adamus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adamus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niemiec form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 1.80 / Niemiec 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Adamus)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13087331
Adamus1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 225 of 415
Up 2–0, closes it88% 85 of 97
Up 1–0, closes it72% 152 of 212
Niemiec1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 22 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeAdamus2wins
AwayNiemiec2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus2Niemiec2n = 4split evenly
S2Adamus1Niemiec3n = 4Niemiec took 3 of 4
S3Adamus4Niemiec0n = 4Adamus took 4 of 4
S4Adamus1Niemiec3n = 4Niemiec took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricAdamusNiemiecA − NBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match41.841.5+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusNiemiecBasisWin rate · lifetime788 / 1622 vs 157 / 25848.6%60.9%788 / 1622 vs 157 / 258Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusAdamus 1.80/Niemiec 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Niemiec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus—81111692R. Niemiec—117611113
LJul 30 · 07:50M. Adamus—1471141R. Niemiec—16115113
WJun 23 · 13:55M. Adamus—115117113R. Niemiec—71151182
WJun 23 · 04:10M. Adamus—11611133R. Niemiec—4119111
M. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 09:50K. Hetnar1.61511119102M. Adamus2.20115611123WSep 7 · 08:35M. Adamus1.6711119113P. Przewlocki2.10591161WSep 7 · 06:55M. Adamus2.3851111123J. Pruszkowski1.531197101WSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130WSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100LSep 5 · 01:00M. Adamus1.57411881G. Sawicki2.2511911113WSep 4 · 23:45M. Adamus1.5081111133A. Szurgot2.351186111WSep 4 · 22:10M. Adamus1.831111113K. Schaniel1.836680
R. Niemiec10
WSep 7 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek1.806111051R. Niemiec1.9111412113LSep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91111575113R. Niemiec1.80913111192WSep 7 · 07:20P. Przewlocki1.5311961182R. Niemiec2.38911115113LSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:30J. Pruszkowski1.571111113R. Niemiec2.257950WSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113LSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113WSep 4 · 15:30R. Niemiec2.2512611113O. Jadach1.571011471LSep 4 · 14:20R. Niemiec1.85514123122W. Tobiasz1.8511121011143LSep 4 · 12:45R. Niemiec2.409440G. Wichowski1.501111113
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