TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087196
Played Sep 7Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111141012511––
Rafal Niemiec
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:48 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Kaczmarek to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Kaczmarek above · Rafal Niemiec below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 70 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Jakub Kaczmarek at 58.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 5–3 Rafal Niemiec Rafal Niemiec has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:48What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kaczmarek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Kaczmarek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1310 vs Niemiec 1296
Kaczmarek
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Niemiec 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Niemiec 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek +1 · Niemiec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kaczmarek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Niemiec form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 1.80 / Niemiec 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kaczmarek)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13087196
Kaczmarek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 72 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it80% 57 of 71
Niemiec1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 22 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKaczmarek5wins
AwayNiemiec3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderKaczmarek leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaczmarek71.4%5 of 7
AwayNiemiecn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek7Niemiec1n = 8Kaczmarek took 7 of 8
S2Kaczmarek2Niemiec6n = 8Niemiec took 6 of 8
S3Kaczmarek6Niemiec2n = 8Kaczmarek took 6 of 8
S4Kaczmarek5Niemiec2n = 7Kaczmarek took 5 of 7
S5Kaczmarek1Niemiec3n = 4Niemiec took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKaczmarekNiemiecK − NBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match44.841.2+3.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekNiemiecBasisWin rate · lifetime470 / 1290 vs 156 / 25736.4%60.7%470 / 1290 vs 156 / 257Avg sets wonper match1.62.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaczmarekKaczmarek 1.80/Niemiec 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kaczmarek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Niemiec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 4 · 17:05J. Kaczmarek—11811113R. Niemiec—611951
WSep 4 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek—1112911113R. Niemiec—81411972
LAug 5 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek—712118112R. Niemiec—1110911133
WAug 5 · 03:50J. Kaczmarek—1111123R. Niemiec—59100
WJul 30 · 09:10J. Kaczmarek—111111113R. Niemiec—813881
WJul 27 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek—11711113R. Niemiec—811591
LJun 22 · 13:30J. Kaczmarek—11951192R. Niemiec—811119113
LJun 22 · 07:20J. Kaczmarek—118111472R. Niemiec—711716113
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113LSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Jadach1.2511819113J. Kaczmarek3.757111731WSep 4 · 13:30W. Tobiasz1.5791181182J. Kaczmarek2.20119116113LSep 4 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.20115911113J. Kaczmarek3.8541111792LSep 4 · 11:05O. Jadach1.301113153J. Kaczmarek3.20811130LSep 4 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek3.3591131172S. Szostok1.27119119113WSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113WSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz1.601281081J. Kaczmarek2.10101112113LSep 4 · 05:55G. Wichowski1.251111113J. Kaczmarek3.509380
R. Niemiec10
LSep 7 · 08:10J. Nowak1.91111575113R. Niemiec1.80913111192WSep 7 · 07:20P. Przewlocki1.5311961182R. Niemiec2.38911115113LSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080LSep 7 · 04:30J. Pruszkowski1.571111113R. Niemiec2.257950WSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113LSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113WSep 4 · 15:30R. Niemiec2.2512611113O. Jadach1.571011471LSep 4 · 14:20R. Niemiec1.85514123122W. Tobiasz1.8511121011143LSep 4 · 12:45R. Niemiec2.409440G. Wichowski1.501111113LSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113
Upcoming Matches
J. Kaczmarek
Sep 7 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek2.10W. Urban1.67—Sep 7 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek4.00K. Hetnar1.22—Sep 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.00M. Adamus1.73—Sep 7 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.20P. Przewlocki1.61—Sep 8 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek—M. Adamus——Sep 8 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek—K. Hetnar——Sep 8 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 8 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek—R. Skotniczny——Sep 8 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek—M. Cesarz——
R. Niemiec
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.