TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087273
Played Sep 7Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116117711711116
Mariusz Adamus
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingWojciech Urban above · Mariusz Adamus below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 88 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Wojciech Urban at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Urban 22–20 Mariusz Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 20 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:19What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Urban
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-20 in 42
Urban
Correct
gap of 2 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1370 vs Adamus 1321
Urban
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 40% vs Adamus 60%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 40% vs Adamus 70%
Adamus
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban -3 · Adamus +1
Urban
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Urban)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 1.80 / Adamus 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Urban)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13087273
Urban1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 178 of 306
Up 2–0, closes it96% 72 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it73% 125 of 171
Adamus1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 177 of 430
Down 0–1, comes back22% 50 of 223
Down 0–2, comes back10% 12 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUrban6wins
AwayAdamus4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderUrban leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUrban80%4 of 5
AwayAdamus60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban5Adamus5n = 10split evenly
S2Urban6Adamus4n = 10Urban took 6 of 10
S3Urban6Adamus4n = 10Urban took 6 of 10
S4Urban3Adamus3n = 6split evenly
S5Urban2Adamus2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricUrbanAdamusU − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.236.6+1.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime734 / 1562 vs 789 / 162647%48.5%734 / 1562 vs 789 / 1626Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanUrban 1.80/Adamus 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 23:50W. Urban—11114113M. Adamus—691171
WAug 31 · 17:55W. Urban—1111113M. Adamus—8970
LAug 30 · 07:35W. Urban—7970M. Adamus—1111113
LAug 28 · 04:50W. Urban—79100M. Adamus—1111123
WAug 22 · 08:00W. Urban—1291111113M. Adamus—14115962
LAug 17 · 19:30W. Urban—71111582M. Adamus—115911113
WAug 12 · 04:00W. Urban—711118113M. Adamus—11581152
WJul 30 · 03:50W. Urban—11511113M. Adamus—911581
WJul 14 · 23:20W. Urban—1111113M. Adamus—5990
LJul 14 · 17:20W. Urban—11167862M. Adamus—7141111113
W. Urban10
LSep 7 · 12:40W. Urban2.50815581K. Hetnar1.50111311113LSep 7 · 11:25W. Urban1.6795111182R. Niemiec2.10111165113LSep 7 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek2.101110911113W. Urban1.6761211772WSep 7 · 09:25W. Urban1.80127148113P. Przewlocki1.911011121182WSep 4 · 08:45P. Mecik2.0549111182W. Urban1.66111155113WSep 4 · 07:35W. Urban1.83911811123Y. Fomin1.86118118102LSep 4 · 06:25A. Ruszkiewicz2.1011114143W. Urban1.606711121WSep 4 · 05:10M. Lebek1.5066111182W. Urban2.35111157113LSep 4 · 03:35M. Paszkiewicz2.401111113W. Urban1.507950LSep 3 · 08:20O. Sokolowski2.17101111113W. Urban1.59129371
M. Adamus10
WSep 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.00116681M. Adamus1.7371111113LSep 7 · 12:15M. Adamus2.0011114982P. Przewlocki1.73641111113LSep 7 · 10:35M. Adamus1.8013960R. Niemiec1.911511113WSep 7 · 09:50K. Hetnar1.61511119102M. Adamus2.20115611123WSep 7 · 08:35M. Adamus1.6711119113P. Przewlocki2.10591161WSep 7 · 06:55M. Adamus2.3851111123J. Pruszkowski1.531197101WSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130WSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162LSep 7 · 03:00M. Adamus1.8381111692R. Niemiec1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:35M. Adamus1.671111123M. Baron2.1098100
Upcoming Matches
W. Urban
Sep 8 · 03:50W. Urban2.00P. Brozek1.73—Sep 8 · 04:55W. Urban2.25P. Gumulinski1.57—Sep 8 · 05:40W. Urban1.91P. Przewlocki1.80—Sep 8 · 06:30W. Urban2.10R. Idaczyk1.67—Sep 8 · 08:10W. Urban2.75M. Durda1.40—Sep 8 · 09:50W. Urban1.91P. Przewlocki1.80—Sep 8 · 11:00W. Urban2.25P. Gumulinski1.57—Sep 8 · 11:50W. Urban2.00P. Brozek1.73—Sep 8 · 12:40W. Urban2.10R. Idaczyk1.67—Sep 8 · 14:20W. Urban—M. Durda——
M. Adamus1 of 2 neutral
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