TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092306
Played Sep 8Finished
Rafal Idaczyk
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115118911511511
Piotr Gumulinski
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:28 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Idaczyk above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 87 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 62.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Idaczyk 16–22 Piotr Gumulinski Rafal Idaczyk has won 16 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:28What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-22 in 38
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 6 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Idaczyk 1364 vs Gumulinski 1480
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Idaczyk 40% vs Gumulinski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Idaczyk 60% vs Gumulinski 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Idaczyk +1 · Gumulinski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Gumulinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIdaczyk 2.38 / Gumulinski 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Gumulinski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13092306
Idaczyk2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 104 of 274
Down 0–1, comes back15% 23 of 159
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 108
Gumulinski1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 345 of 574
Up 2–0, closes it93% 158 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it76% 235 of 311
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIdaczyk8wins
AwayGumulinski2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderIdaczyk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIdaczyk100%8 of 8
AwayGumulinskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Idaczyk8Gumulinski2n = 10Idaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Idaczyk7Gumulinski3n = 10Idaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Idaczyk7Gumulinski3n = 10Idaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Idaczyk4Gumulinski2n = 6Idaczyk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricIdaczykGumulinskiI − GBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.035.2+4.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIdaczykGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime472 / 958 vs 1025 / 182149.3%56.3%472 / 958 vs 1025 / 1821Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiIdaczyk 2.38/Gumulinski 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 08:00R. Idaczyk—711951P. Gumulinski—11911113
WAug 28 · 09:25R. Idaczyk—15129113P. Gumulinski—13101191
WAug 28 · 03:25R. Idaczyk—1111133P. Gumulinski—79110
LAug 21 · 05:10R. Idaczyk—64111192P. Gumulinski—111197113
WAug 14 · 05:35R. Idaczyk—1111123P. Gumulinski—66100
WMay 17 · 04:25R. Idaczyk—111112123P. Gumulinski—8914101
WApr 30 · 04:25R. Idaczyk—119119113P. Gumulinski—61181162
WApr 29 · 07:10R. Idaczyk—1111113P. Gumulinski—8870
WApr 24 · 06:25R. Idaczyk—1114113P. Gumulinski—71280
WApr 14 · 04:00R. Idaczyk—11914113P. Gumulinski—5111281
R. Idaczyk10
LSep 8 · 10:10P. Brozek1.60101111113R. Idaczyk2.10127961WSep 8 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.101111113P. Brozek1.679570LSep 8 · 06:30R. Idaczyk1.671211761W. Urban2.1014911113LSep 8 · 05:15R. Idaczyk3.505480M. Durda1.281111113LSep 8 · 04:10P. Przewlocki2.001111113R. Idaczyk1.735650WSep 8 · 03:25R. Idaczyk2.251111127113P. Gumulinski1.5728141162WSep 6 · 08:00G. Sawicki1.8511911362R. Idaczyk1.80911911113WSep 6 · 07:10W. Pytlas1.494570R. Idaczyk2.451111113WSep 6 · 06:25R. Idaczyk1.8581111123P. Slosarczyk1.851135101WSep 6 · 04:50R. Idaczyk2.951111153K. Hetnar1.3554130
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 8 · 08:35P. Przewlocki2.7591111592P. Gumulinski1.40117911113LSep 8 · 07:20P. Gumulinski2.2511911492M. Durda1.57911411113LSep 8 · 06:05P. Brozek2.0021111113P. Gumulinski1.73113991LSep 8 · 04:55W. Urban2.2511131111113P. Gumulinski1.5751561352LSep 8 · 03:25R. Idaczyk2.251111127113P. Gumulinski1.5728141162WSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 13:05P. Gumulinski2.1011111311113J. Wieczerzak1.6713615652WSep 6 · 11:50P. Gumulinski2.6391211113P. Jedrzejak1.441110661WSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101
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