TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090939
Played Sep 8Finished
Rafal Idaczyk
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1121181214711116
Piotr Gumulinski
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:56 and never touched — 56.3% is still 56.3%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
56.3%
56.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRafal Idaczyk above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 93 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 56.3%
93 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Idaczyk 16–22 Piotr Gumulinski Rafal Idaczyk has won 16 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:56What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Gumulinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-22 in 38
Gumulinski
Wrong
gap of 6 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Idaczyk 1363 vs Gumulinski 1534
Gumulinski
Wrong
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Idaczyk 80% vs Gumulinski 100%
Gumulinski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Idaczyk 60% vs Gumulinski 90%
Gumulinski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Idaczyk +4 · Gumulinski +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Gumulinski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIdaczyk 2.25 / Gumulinski 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Gumulinski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13090939
Idaczyk2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 104 of 276
Down 0–1, comes back14% 23 of 161
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 109
Gumulinski1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 345 of 573
Up 2–0, closes it93% 158 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it76% 235 of 311
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIdaczyk8wins
AwayGumulinski2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderIdaczyk leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIdaczyk100%8 of 8
AwayGumulinskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Idaczyk8Gumulinski2n = 10Idaczyk took 8 of 10
S2Idaczyk7Gumulinski3n = 10Idaczyk took 7 of 10
S3Idaczyk7Gumulinski3n = 10Idaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Idaczyk4Gumulinski2n = 6Idaczyk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricIdaczykGumulinskiI − GBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.035.2+4.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIdaczykGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime470 / 953 vs 1024 / 181649.3%56.4%470 / 953 vs 1024 / 1816Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiIdaczyk 2.25/Gumulinski 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Idaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 08:00R. Idaczyk—711951P. Gumulinski—11911113
WAug 28 · 09:25R. Idaczyk—15129113P. Gumulinski—13101191
WAug 28 · 03:25R. Idaczyk—1111133P. Gumulinski—79110
LAug 21 · 05:10R. Idaczyk—64111192P. Gumulinski—111197113
WAug 14 · 05:35R. Idaczyk—1111123P. Gumulinski—66100
WMay 17 · 04:25R. Idaczyk—111112123P. Gumulinski—8914101
WApr 30 · 04:25R. Idaczyk—119119113P. Gumulinski—61181162
WApr 29 · 07:10R. Idaczyk—1111113P. Gumulinski—8870
WApr 24 · 06:25R. Idaczyk—1114113P. Gumulinski—71280
WApr 14 · 04:00R. Idaczyk—11914113P. Gumulinski—5111281
R. Idaczyk10
LSep 8 · 04:10P. Przewlocki2.001111113R. Idaczyk1.735650WSep 6 · 08:00G. Sawicki1.8511911362R. Idaczyk1.80911911113WSep 6 · 07:10W. Pytlas1.494570R. Idaczyk2.451111113WSep 6 · 06:25R. Idaczyk1.8581111123P. Slosarczyk1.851135101WSep 6 · 04:50R. Idaczyk2.951111153K. Hetnar1.3554130LSep 6 · 04:00K. Juszczyk1.4011813133R. Idaczyk2.7561111111WSep 5 · 16:20R. Idaczyk2.01121111113R. Piechnik1.69147981WSep 5 · 15:05R. Idaczyk2.37881111113J. Jesiek1.5211117752LSep 5 · 13:55R. Idaczyk1.607114101W. Buczynski2.1011911123LSep 5 · 12:45M. Lach1.301111113R. Idaczyk3.103720
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862WSep 6 · 13:05P. Gumulinski2.1011111311113J. Wieczerzak1.6713615652WSep 6 · 11:50P. Gumulinski2.6391211113P. Jedrzejak1.441110661WSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.5011147123J. Jesiek2.5071211101WSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113WSep 6 · 06:55J. Wieczerzak1.6191111782P. Gumulinski2.20114911113WSep 6 · 06:05P. Gumulinski1.5711118113O. Vincenec2.25671191WSep 6 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.50111110113J. Jesiek2.50751281LSep 6 · 03:50P. Jedrzejak1.441111113P. Gumulinski2.636940
Upcoming Matches
R. Idaczyk
P. Gumulinski
Sep 8 · 06:05P. Gumulinski1.73P. Brozek2.00—Sep 8 · 07:20P. Gumulinski2.25M. Durda1.57—Sep 8 · 08:35P. Gumulinski1.40P. Przewlocki2.75—Sep 8 · 09:25P. Gumulinski1.57R. Idaczyk2.25—Sep 8 · 11:00P. Gumulinski1.57W. Urban2.25—Sep 8 · 12:15P. Gumulinski1.40P. Przewlocki2.75—Sep 8 · 13:30P. Gumulinski2.25M. Durda1.57—Sep 8 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.73P. Brozek2.00—
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