TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091569
Played Sep 8Finished
Wojciech Urban
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1198111171311––
Michal Durda
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:27 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Durda to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingWojciech Urban above · Michal Durda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 81 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Michal Durda at 58.9%
81 points played in total.
H2H Wojciech Urban 1–2 Michal Durda Wojciech Urban has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Durda beat Urban 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:27What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Durda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Urban 1449 vs Durda 1617
Durda
Wrong
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Urban 60% vs Durda 40%
Urban
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Urban 70% vs Durda 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Urban +3 · Durda -2
Urban
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Durda) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Durda form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUrban 3.40 / Durda 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Durda)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13091569
Urban3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 218 of 548
Down 0–1, comes back20% 60 of 306
Down 0–2, comes back6% 12 of 187
Durda1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite78% won 180 of 230
Up 2–0, closes it98% 90 of 92
Up 1–0, closes it93% 126 of 136
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeUrban1wins
AwayDurda2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderDurda leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Urban1Durda2n = 3Durda took 2 of 3
S2Urban2Durda1n = 3Urban took 2 of 3
S3Urban1Durda2n = 3Durda took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricUrbanDurdaU − DBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match36.037.7−1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUrbanDurdaBasisWin rate · lifetime740 / 1571 vs 194 / 24947.1%77.9%740 / 1571 vs 194 / 249Avg sets wonper match1.92.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.040.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DurdaUrban 3.40/Durda 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.1%
Durda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Urban won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 8 · 08:10W. Urban—311110M. Durda—1113133
LJul 27 · 04:40W. Urban—71171192M. Durda—116118113
WJul 26 · 22:40W. Urban—1611113M. Durda—14690
W. Urban10
WSep 8 · 12:40R. Idaczyk1.674930W. Urban2.101111113WSep 8 · 11:50P. Brozek1.838680W. Urban1.831111113WSep 8 · 11:00W. Urban2.25158126123P. Gumulinski1.5713111011102LSep 8 · 09:50W. Urban2.20151171172P. Przewlocki1.611313119113LSep 8 · 08:10W. Urban2.75311110M. Durda1.401113133WSep 8 · 06:30R. Idaczyk1.671211761W. Urban2.1014911113WSep 8 · 05:40P. Przewlocki1.804890W. Urban1.911111113WSep 8 · 04:55W. Urban2.2511131111113P. Gumulinski1.5751561352LSep 8 · 03:50W. Urban2.0091111672P. Brozek1.73118611113WSep 7 · 13:55W. Urban1.80111177113M. Adamus1.9167111162
M. Durda10
LSep 8 · 13:30P. Gumulinski2.2511119113M. Durda1.57461141LSep 8 · 11:25R. Idaczyk5.0071111133M. Durda1.141178111WSep 8 · 10:35P. Przewlocki4.50412141272M. Durda1.1711101610113LSep 8 · 09:00P. Brozek3.5061111113M. Durda1.28114981WSep 8 · 08:10W. Urban2.75311110M. Durda1.401113133WSep 8 · 07:20P. Gumulinski2.2511911492M. Durda1.57911411113WSep 8 · 05:15R. Idaczyk3.505480M. Durda1.281111113WSep 8 · 04:30P. Brozek2.75511791M. Durda1.4011611113WSep 8 · 03:00P. Przewlocki3.7512810M. Durda1.251411113WSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113
Upcoming Matches
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