Piotr Gumulinski vs Michal Durda 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092339

Played Sep 8Finished

Piotr Gumulinski

Home

2.25

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

114116911114––

Michal Durda

Away

1.57

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%

Graded at full time

Michal Durda to win

62.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingPiotr Gumulinski above · Michal Durda below

Set 1 · 11-4

Set 2 · 11-6

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-4

Point 67 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Michal Durda at 62.1%

67 points played in total.

H2H Piotr Gumulinski 4–5 Michal Durda Piotr Gumulinski has won 4 of their 9 meetings.

Last 9 · 4–5Same sideHead to head

Same-day rematch · 6h before this match

Durda beat Gumulinski 3-2.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 11:27

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Durda

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

4-5 in 9

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Gumulinski 1457 vs Durda 1631

Durda

Wrong

both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Gumulinski 60% vs Durda 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Gumulinski 50% vs Durda 80%

Durda

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Gumulinski +1 · Durda -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Durda)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Gumulinski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsGumulinski 2.25 / Durda 1.57

Signal prob.38% / 62%

Edge (Durda)+3.2pp

TT Elite Series · #13092339

Gumulinski2.25

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As underdog58% won 145 of 251

Down 0–1, comes back45% 62 of 139

Down 0–2, comes back19% 12 of 64

Durda1.57

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite78% won 180 of 230

Up 2–0, closes it98% 90 of 92

Up 1–0, closes it93% 126 of 136

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 9 meetings

HomeGumulinski4wins

AwayDurda5wins

6 of 9 to a deciderDurda leads 5–4, and 6 of those 9 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeGumulinski60%3 of 5

AwayDurda75%3 of 4

Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Gumulinski5Durda4n = 9Gumulinski took 5 of 9

S2Gumulinski5Durda4n = 9Gumulinski took 5 of 9

S3Gumulinski4Durda5n = 9Durda took 5 of 9

S4Gumulinski2Durda5n = 7Durda took 5 of 7

S5Gumulinski3Durda3n = 6split evenly

How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home111%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home333%

2–3Decider, away333%

1–3Four sets, away111%

0–3Straight, away111%

These 9 meetings

MetricGumulinskiDurdaG − DBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match40.439.4+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricGumulinskiDurdaBasisWin rate · lifetime1027 / 1824 vs 194 / 24856.3%78.2%1027 / 1824 vs 194 / 248Avg sets wonper match2.22.6per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Durda

Gumulinski 2.25/Durda 1.57

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

62.1%

Durda · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Gumulinski won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record9

LSep 8 · 07:20P. Gumulinski—11911492M. Durda—911411113

WJul 29 · 11:50P. Gumulinski—1111118113M. Durda—61341172

LJul 29 · 03:50P. Gumulinski—911251M. Durda—11611113

LJul 28 · 01:10P. Gumulinski—51181182M. Durda—113113113

LJul 27 · 19:30P. Gumulinski—6890M. Durda—1111113

WJul 27 · 01:30P. Gumulinski—1211712123M. Durda—1491110102

LJul 26 · 19:30P. Gumulinski—11119772M. Durda—741111113

WJul 8 · 13:30P. Gumulinski—1111113M. Durda—9360

WJul 8 · 07:20P. Gumulinski—116114113M. Durda—81191122

P. Gumulinski10

LSep 8 · 14:40P. Brozek2.0021112113P. Gumulinski1.731181091 WSep 8 · 12:15P. Przewlocki2.7571751182P. Gumulinski1.401115118113 LSep 8 · 11:00W. Urban2.25158126123P. Gumulinski1.5713111011102 WSep 8 · 09:25R. Idaczyk2.3811119552P. Gumulinski1.53581111113 WSep 8 · 08:35P. Przewlocki2.7591111592P. Gumulinski1.40117911113 LSep 8 · 07:20P. Gumulinski2.2511911492M. Durda1.57911411113 LSep 8 · 06:05P. Brozek2.0021111113P. Gumulinski1.73113991 LSep 8 · 04:55W. Urban2.2511131111113P. Gumulinski1.5751561352 LSep 8 · 03:25R. Idaczyk2.251111127113P. Gumulinski1.5728141162 WSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862

M. Durda10

LSep 8 · 14:20W. Urban3.4011811133M. Durda1.309117111 LSep 8 · 11:25R. Idaczyk5.0071111133M. Durda1.141178111 WSep 8 · 10:35P. Przewlocki4.50412141272M. Durda1.1711101610113 LSep 8 · 09:00P. Brozek3.5061111113M. Durda1.28114981 WSep 8 · 08:10W. Urban2.75311110M. Durda1.401113133 WSep 8 · 07:20P. Gumulinski2.2511911492M. Durda1.57911411113 WSep 8 · 05:15R. Idaczyk3.505480M. Durda1.281111113 WSep 8 · 04:30P. Brozek2.75511791M. Durda1.4011611113 WSep 8 · 03:00P. Przewlocki3.7512810M. Durda1.251411113 WSep 2 · 01:45G. Marud4.3349111282M. Durda1.201111910113

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