TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13092345
Played Sep 8Finished
Piotr Brozek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
2111181210119––
Piotr Gumulinski
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:26 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPiotr Brozek above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 54.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Brozek 2–3 Piotr Gumulinski Piotr Brozek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 9h before this match
Brozek beat Gumulinski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:26What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gumulinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1435 vs Gumulinski 1469
Gumulinski
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 60% vs Gumulinski 80%
Gumulinski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 60% vs Gumulinski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek +1 · Gumulinski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gumulinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 2.00 / Gumulinski 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gumulinski)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13092345
Brozek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog49% won 21 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back22% 5 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Gumulinski1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 345 of 574
Up 2–0, closes it93% 158 of 170
Up 1–0, closes it76% 235 of 311
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBrozek2wins
AwayGumulinski3wins
2 of 5 to a deciderGumulinski leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrozekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayGumulinski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek2Gumulinski3n = 5Gumulinski took 3 of 5
S2Brozek3Gumulinski2n = 5Brozek took 3 of 5
S3Brozek3Gumulinski2n = 5Brozek took 3 of 5
S4Brozek3Gumulinski2n = 5Brozek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBrozekGumulinskiB − GBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match40.841.4−0.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime86 / 159 vs 1028 / 182554.1%56.3%86 / 159 vs 1028 / 1825Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiBrozek 2.00/Gumulinski 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 8 · 06:05P. Brozek—21111113P. Gumulinski—113991
LMay 24 · 22:50P. Brozek—12131041P. Gumulinski—101512113
LMay 24 · 15:10P. Brozek—111111862P. Gumulinski—913511113
WMar 24 · 03:20P. Brozek—71111113P. Gumulinski—118751
LMar 23 · 19:20P. Brozek—711121122P. Gumulinski—116145113
P. Brozek10
WSep 8 · 13:05P. Brozek1.8091111143P. Przewlocki1.911176121LSep 8 · 11:50P. Brozek1.838680W. Urban1.831111113WSep 8 · 10:10P. Brozek1.60101111113R. Idaczyk2.10127961WSep 8 · 09:00P. Brozek3.5061111113M. Durda1.28114981LSep 8 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.101111113P. Brozek1.679570WSep 8 · 06:55P. Przewlocki2.10661371P. Brozek1.67111111113WSep 8 · 06:05P. Brozek2.0021111113P. Gumulinski1.73113991LSep 8 · 04:30P. Brozek2.75511791M. Durda1.4011611113WSep 8 · 03:50W. Urban2.0091111672P. Brozek1.73118611113LSep 2 · 13:55P. Brozek1.40881461J. Kaczmarek2.75111112113
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 8 · 13:30P. Gumulinski2.2511119113M. Durda1.57461141WSep 8 · 12:15P. Przewlocki2.7571751182P. Gumulinski1.401115118113LSep 8 · 11:00W. Urban2.25158126123P. Gumulinski1.5713111011102WSep 8 · 09:25R. Idaczyk2.3811119552P. Gumulinski1.53581111113WSep 8 · 08:35P. Przewlocki2.7591111592P. Gumulinski1.40117911113LSep 8 · 07:20P. Gumulinski2.2511911492M. Durda1.57911411113LSep 8 · 06:05P. Brozek2.0021111113P. Gumulinski1.73113991LSep 8 · 04:55W. Urban2.2511131111113P. Gumulinski1.5751561352LSep 8 · 03:25R. Idaczyk2.251111127113P. Gumulinski1.5728141162WSep 6 · 14:40P. Gumulinski1.731011511113O. Vincenec2.0012511862
Upcoming Matches
P. Brozek
Nothing scheduled
P. Gumulinski
Sep 9 · 03:00P. Gumulinski1.73R. Gajda2.00—Sep 9 · 04:30P. Gumulinski1.67O. Vincenec2.10—Sep 9 · 05:15P. Gumulinski1.40P. Przewlocki2.75—Sep 9 · 07:20P. Gumulinski1.67K. Schaniel2.10—Sep 9 · 08:10P. Gumulinski1.53P. Kurek2.38—Sep 9 · 09:00P. Gumulinski1.67O. Vincenec2.10—Sep 9 · 10:35P. Gumulinski1.73R. Gajda2.00—Sep 9 · 11:25P. Gumulinski1.40P. Przewlocki2.75—Sep 9 · 13:30P. Gumulinski1.67K. Schaniel2.10—Sep 9 · 14:20P. Gumulinski1.53P. Kurek2.38—
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