TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13062212
Played Sep 2Finished
Piotr Brozek
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8118111412611––
Jakub Kaczmarek
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Kaczmarek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Brozek above · Jakub Kaczmarek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 81 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jakub Kaczmarek at 54.0%
81 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Brozek 3–0 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:03What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Brozek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Brozek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brozek 1421 vs Kaczmarek 1336
Brozek
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brozek 40% vs Kaczmarek 60%
Kaczmarek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brozek 50% vs Kaczmarek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brozek +1 · Kaczmarek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Brozek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrozek 1.40 / Kaczmarek 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Brozek)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13062212
Brozek1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 48 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it79% 38 of 48
Kaczmarek2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 159 of 487
Down 0–1, comes back19% 59 of 318
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 179
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBrozek3wins
AwayKaczmarek0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBrozek leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brozek2Kaczmarek1n = 3Brozek took 2 of 3
S2Brozek2Kaczmarek1n = 3Brozek took 2 of 3
S3Brozek2Kaczmarek1n = 3Brozek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBrozekKaczmarekB − KBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match44.035.7+8.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrozekKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 149 vs 467 / 128453.7%36.4%80 / 149 vs 467 / 1284Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.535.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekBrozek 1.40/Kaczmarek 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.1%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kaczmarek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 2 · 04:10P. Brozek—141111113J. Kaczmarek—169661
WMay 6 · 13:30P. Brozek—1110711113J. Kaczmarek—71211962
WMay 6 · 07:40P. Brozek—1113113J. Kaczmarek—81160
P. Brozek10
WSep 2 · 12:40P. Brozek1.831111113W. Ptak1.839470LSep 2 · 11:25P. Brozek1.731111171O. Vincenec2.0091113113WSep 2 · 10:10P. Przewlocki2.201071191P. Brozek1.6112119113LSep 2 · 09:25P. Brozek1.80491281K. Adamus1.86111110113LSep 2 · 07:45P. Brozek1.50781311102P. Przewlocki2.501111119123LSep 2 · 06:30P. Brozek1.73101271162W. Ptak2.001210116113WSep 2 · 05:15P. Brozek1.731112113O. Vincenec2.0061050WSep 2 · 04:10J. Kaczmarek2.63169661P. Brozek1.44141111113WSep 2 · 03:25P. Brozek1.91681111113K. Adamus1.8011116952LAug 31 · 14:40P. Brozek1.1151111892I. Szymanski6.00117411113
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113LSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Jadach1.2511819113J. Kaczmarek3.757111731WSep 4 · 13:30W. Tobiasz1.5791181182J. Kaczmarek2.20119116113LSep 4 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.20115911113J. Kaczmarek3.8541111792LSep 4 · 11:05O. Jadach1.301113153J. Kaczmarek3.20811130LSep 4 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek3.3591131172S. Szostok1.27119119113WSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113WSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz1.601281081J. Kaczmarek2.10101112113LSep 2 · 04:10J. Kaczmarek2.63169661P. Brozek1.44141111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Brozek
Nothing scheduled
J. Kaczmarek
Sep 7 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek2.10W. Urban1.67—Sep 7 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek4.00K. Hetnar1.22—Sep 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.00M. Adamus1.73—Sep 7 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.20P. Przewlocki1.61—Sep 8 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek—M. Adamus——Sep 8 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek—K. Hetnar——Sep 8 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 8 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek—R. Skotniczny——Sep 8 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek—M. Cesarz——
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