TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13058902
Played Sep 2Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1614911611611––
Piotr Brozek
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:52 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timePiotr Brozek to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kaczmarek above · Piotr Brozek below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 84 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Piotr Brozek at 56.5%
84 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 0–3 Piotr Brozek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:52What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Brozek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Brozek
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1298 vs Brozek 1432
Brozek
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 60% vs Brozek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 50% vs Brozek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek +2 · Brozek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Brozek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaczmarek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 2.63 / Brozek 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Brozek)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13058902
Kaczmarek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 159 of 487
Down 0–1, comes back19% 59 of 318
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 179
Brozek1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 48 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it100% 27 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it79% 38 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKaczmarek0wins
AwayBrozek3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderBrozek leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaczmarek1Brozek2n = 3Brozek took 2 of 3
S2Kaczmarek1Brozek2n = 3Brozek took 2 of 3
S3Kaczmarek1Brozek2n = 3Brozek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKaczmarekBrozekK − BBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match35.744.0−8.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekBrozekBasisWin rate · lifetime466 / 1280 vs 77 / 14236.4%54.2%466 / 1280 vs 77 / 142Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrozekKaczmarek 2.63/Brozek 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Brozek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Brozek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 2 · 04:10J. Kaczmarek—169661P. Brozek—141111113
LMay 6 · 13:30J. Kaczmarek—71211962P. Brozek—1110711113
LMay 6 · 07:40J. Kaczmarek—81160P. Brozek—1113113
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113LSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Jadach1.2511819113J. Kaczmarek3.757111731WSep 4 · 13:30W. Tobiasz1.5791181182J. Kaczmarek2.20119116113LSep 4 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.20115911113J. Kaczmarek3.8541111792LSep 4 · 11:05O. Jadach1.301113153J. Kaczmarek3.20811130LSep 4 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek3.3591131172S. Szostok1.27119119113WSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113WSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz1.601281081J. Kaczmarek2.10101112113LSep 4 · 05:55G. Wichowski1.251111113J. Kaczmarek3.509380
P. Brozek10
LSep 2 · 13:55P. Brozek1.40881461J. Kaczmarek2.75111112113WSep 2 · 12:40P. Brozek1.831111113W. Ptak1.839470LSep 2 · 11:25P. Brozek1.731111171O. Vincenec2.0091113113WSep 2 · 10:10P. Przewlocki2.201071191P. Brozek1.6112119113LSep 2 · 09:25P. Brozek1.80491281K. Adamus1.86111110113LSep 2 · 07:45P. Brozek1.50781311102P. Przewlocki2.501111119123LSep 2 · 06:30P. Brozek1.73101271162W. Ptak2.001210116113WSep 2 · 05:15P. Brozek1.731112113O. Vincenec2.0061050WSep 2 · 03:25P. Brozek1.91681111113K. Adamus1.8011116952LAug 31 · 14:40P. Brozek1.1151111892I. Szymanski6.00117411113
Upcoming Matches
J. Kaczmarek
Sep 7 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek2.10W. Urban1.67—Sep 7 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek4.00K. Hetnar1.22—Sep 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.00M. Adamus1.73—Sep 7 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.20P. Przewlocki1.61—Sep 8 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek—M. Adamus——Sep 8 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek—K. Hetnar——Sep 8 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek—A. Ruszkiewicz——Sep 8 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek—R. Skotniczny——Sep 8 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek—M. Cesarz——
P. Brozek
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