TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13102994
Played Sep 10Finished
Mateusz Sikon
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111210118119––
Lukasz Oracz
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:27 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Sikon above · Lukasz Oracz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 80 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 54.4%
80 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Sikon 3–8 Lukasz Oracz Mateusz Sikon has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Oracz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Oracz
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sikon 1396 vs Oracz 1522
Oracz
Wrong
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sikon 80% vs Oracz 40%
Sikon
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sikon 80% vs Oracz 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sikon +1 · Oracz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikon 3.50 / Oracz 1.28
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Oracz)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13102994
Sikon3.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 91 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back14% 24 of 174
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 111
Oracz1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 379 of 598
Up 2–0, closes it97% 203 of 210
Up 1–0, closes it83% 296 of 356
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSikon3wins
AwayOracz7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSikon66.7%2 of 3
AwayOracz85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikon3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S2Sikon3Oracz7n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S3Sikon2Oracz8n = 10Oracz took 8 of 10
S4Sikon1Oracz2n = 3Oracz took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricSikonOraczS − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match25.333.1−7.8per matchSweeps16−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikonOraczBasisWin rate · lifetime147 / 385 vs 821 / 147538.2%55.7%147 / 385 vs 821 / 1475Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczSikon 3.50/Oracz 1.28
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
79.4%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sikon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 02:45M. Sikon—1171081L. Oracz—61112113
LSep 6 · 23:05M. Sikon—5660L. Oracz—1111113
WAug 28 · 22:35M. Sikon—11117113L. Oracz—491181
LAug 28 · 15:00M. Sikon—7460L. Oracz—1111113
LAug 27 · 14:20M. Sikon—96100L. Oracz—1111123
LAug 27 · 08:10M. Sikon—7360L. Oracz—1111113
WAug 18 · 03:05M. Sikon—1111113L. Oracz—3470
WAug 12 · 24:10M. Sikon—411116123L. Oracz—117711102
LAug 11 · 20:30M. Sikon—2440L. Oracz—1111113
LJul 17 · 14:40M. Sikon—3840L. Oracz—1111113
M. Sikon10
WSep 9 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek1.831111981M. Sikon1.8391311113LSep 9 · 07:10M. Lebek1.7051111113M. Sikon2.00115491WSep 9 · 06:25M. Sikon2.171111113O. Sokolowski1.567980WSep 9 · 04:50M. Sikon2.00111110113M. Paszkiewicz1.71591261WSep 9 · 04:00M. Adamus1.57971191M. Sikon2.1611116113LSep 9 · 02:45M. Sikon2.00461181O. Sokolowski1.7011114113WSep 9 · 01:10M. Sikon3.0511912113M. Lebek1.296111061WSep 9 · 24:00M. Sikon2.20111211113M. Adamus1.58714891WSep 8 · 22:25M. Sikon3.35841111113M. Tkocz1.2511119692WSep 8 · 21:10M. Sikon1.90111112133M. Paszkiewicz1.8051310111
L. Oracz10
WSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100LSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113LSep 8 · 23:45L. Oracz1.50711581G. Jurowicz2.5011711113WSep 8 · 22:10L. Oracz1.8011611113M. Koczyba1.91411961LSep 8 · 21:00L. Oracz1.839790P. Adamus1.831111113WSep 8 · 19:40M. Koczyba1.808880L. Oracz1.911111113WSep 8 · 18:55G. Marud1.837520L. Oracz1.831111113WSep 8 · 18:10L. Oracz1.57811118113J. Nowak2.2511851162WSep 8 · 16:35L. Oracz1.67112410113P. Adamus2.108221281WSep 8 · 15:50G. Jurowicz2.507760L. Oracz1.501111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Sikon
Sep 10 · 04:40M. Sikon3.25W. Urban1.33—Sep 10 · 05:50M. Sikon2.63P. Kurek1.44—Sep 10 · 06:30M. Sikon1.73R. Idaczyk2.00—Sep 10 · 08:10M. Sikon3.75K. Slawinski1.25—Sep 10 · 09:50M. Sikon2.63P. Kurek1.44—Sep 10 · 11:00M. Sikon2.38W. Urban1.53—Sep 10 · 11:50M. Sikon3.25L. Oracz1.33—Sep 10 · 12:40M. Sikon1.73R. Idaczyk2.00—Sep 10 · 14:20M. Sikon3.75K. Slawinski1.25—
L. Oracz
Sep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz2.00K. Slawinski1.73—Sep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.73W. Urban2.00—Sep 10 · 06:55L. Oracz1.53P. Kurek2.38—Sep 10 · 07:45L. Oracz1.44R. Idaczyk2.63—Sep 10 · 09:00L. Oracz2.00K. Slawinski1.73—Sep 10 · 10:10L. Oracz1.44R. Idaczyk2.63—Sep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.33M. Sikon3.25—Sep 10 · 13:05L. Oracz1.53P. Kurek2.38—Sep 10 · 14:40L. Oracz1.73W. Urban2.00—
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