TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098573
Played Sep 9Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711113211611––
Piotr Gumulinski
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:20 and never touched — 65.1% is still 65.1%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
65.1%
65.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 62 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 65.1%
62 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 1–12 Piotr Gumulinski Pawel Kurek has won 1 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kurek beat Gumulinski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:20What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Gumulinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-12 in 13
Gumulinski
Correct
gap of 11 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1367 vs Gumulinski 1476
Gumulinski
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 60% vs Gumulinski 40%
Kurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 50% vs Gumulinski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek +1 · Gumulinski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Gumulinski) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 2.38 / Gumulinski 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Gumulinski)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13098573
Kurek2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 119 of 306
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 100
Gumulinski1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 349 of 582
Up 2–0, closes it93% 159 of 171
Up 1–0, closes it75% 238 of 316
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek1wins
AwayGumulinski9wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGumulinski leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek20%1 of 5
AwayGumulinski100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek5Gumulinski5n = 10split evenly
S2Kurek2Gumulinski8n = 10Gumulinski took 8 of 10
S3Kurek1Gumulinski9n = 10Gumulinski took 9 of 10
S4Kurek1Gumulinski3n = 4Gumulinski took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekGumulinskiK − GBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match30.437.7−7.3per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime390 / 776 vs 1033 / 183550.3%56.3%390 / 776 vs 1033 / 1835Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiKurek 2.38/Gumulinski 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.3%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gumulinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 04:00P. Kurek—7860P. Gumulinski—1111113
LJul 8 · 09:00P. Kurek—7970P. Gumulinski—1111113
LJul 8 · 04:30P. Kurek—117841P. Gumulinski—91111113
WJun 30 · 22:10P. Kurek—1211113P. Gumulinski—10970
LJun 26 · 21:20P. Kurek—67110P. Gumulinski—1111133
LMay 28 · 08:45P. Kurek—11381182P. Gumulinski—711116113
LMay 27 · 21:35P. Kurek—11118962P. Gumulinski—661111113
LApr 30 · 08:45P. Kurek—118891P. Gumulinski—91111113
LApr 23 · 05:35P. Kurek—91840P. Gumulinski—1120113
LApr 22 · 23:35P. Kurek—5680P. Gumulinski—1111113
P. Kurek10
WSep 9 · 12:40P. Przewlocki2.1011611992P. Kurek1.67911511113LSep 9 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.831111104113P. Kurek1.8369121192WSep 9 · 11:00P. Kurek1.4411117113K. Schaniel2.63861181LSep 9 · 09:50P. Kurek2.10117861R. Gajda1.6761111113WSep 9 · 08:10P. Kurek2.50117911123P. Gumulinski1.50811119102LSep 9 · 06:30P. Przewlocki2.1071112163P. Kurek1.6711710141WSep 9 · 05:40R. Gajda1.73531111112P. Kurek2.00111179133LSep 9 · 04:55P. Kurek1.445650K. Schaniel2.631111113WSep 9 · 03:50P. Kurek1.911111113O. Vincenec1.804850LSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550
P. Gumulinski10
WSep 9 · 13:30K. Schaniel2.2591111792P. Gumulinski1.57119911113WSep 9 · 11:25P. Przewlocki2.75811101152P. Gumulinski1.40116129113LSep 9 · 10:35R. Gajda2.10117811113P. Gumulinski1.6781111792LSep 9 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.1012911113P. Gumulinski1.671011991LSep 9 · 08:10P. Kurek2.50117911123P. Gumulinski1.50811119102WSep 9 · 07:20K. Schaniel2.107650P. Gumulinski1.671111113WSep 9 · 05:15P. Przewlocki2.757880P. Gumulinski1.401111113LSep 9 · 04:30O. Vincenec2.101011211123P. Gumulinski1.67124115102WSep 9 · 03:00R. Gajda2.007890P. Gumulinski1.731111113LSep 8 · 14:40P. Brozek2.0021112113P. Gumulinski1.731181091
Upcoming Matches
P. Kurek
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