TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098598
Played Sep 9Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118711811117119
Piotr Gumulinski
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Gumulinski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRafal Gajda above · Piotr Gumulinski below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 94 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Piotr Gumulinski at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Gajda 5–1 Piotr Gumulinski Piotr Gumulinski has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:20What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gumulinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Gajda
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1395 vs Gumulinski 1421
Gumulinski
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 60% vs Gumulinski 40%
Gajda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 50% vs Gumulinski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda +2 · Gumulinski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Gumulinski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gumulinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 2.10 / Gumulinski 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Gumulinski)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13098598
Gajda2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog44% won 136 of 307
Down 0–1, comes back29% 49 of 172
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 84
Gumulinski1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 349 of 582
Up 2–0, closes it93% 159 of 171
Up 1–0, closes it75% 238 of 316
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGajda5wins
AwayGumulinski1wins
1 of 6 to a deciderGajda leads 5–1, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda100%3 of 3
AwayGumulinski33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda3Gumulinski3n = 6split evenly
S2Gajda3Gumulinski3n = 6split evenly
S3Gajda4Gumulinski2n = 6Gajda took 4 of 6
S4Gajda4Gumulinski1n = 5Gajda took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home467%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricGajdaGumulinskiGajda − GumulinskiBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.238.2+1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaGumulinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 796 vs 1031 / 183251.8%56.3%412 / 796 vs 1031 / 1832Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GumulinskiGajda 2.10/Gumulinski 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Gumulinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 12 · 11:30R. Gajda—131152113P. Gumulinski—115111192
WAug 12 · 07:10R. Gajda—51211113P. Gumulinski—1110861
WMar 10 · 14:30R. Gajda—13711113P. Gumulinski—1111961
WMar 10 · 08:30R. Gajda—61111123P. Gumulinski—1193101
LFeb 24 · 14:30R. Gajda—13490P. Gumulinski—1511113
WFeb 24 · 08:30R. Gajda—11911153P. Gumulinski—7119131
R. Gajda10
WSep 9 · 09:50P. Kurek2.10117861R. Gajda1.6761111113WSep 9 · 08:35R. Gajda1.83713611113K. Schaniel1.83111111432LSep 9 · 06:55R. Gajda1.73711211102O. Vincenec2.00116118123LSep 9 · 05:40R. Gajda1.73531111112P. Kurek2.00111179133WSep 9 · 04:10R. Gajda2.00118711113P. Przewlocki1.7391111672LSep 9 · 03:00R. Gajda2.007890P. Gumulinski1.731111113LSep 8 · 20:20R. Gajda2.1851160K. Juszczyk1.561113113LSep 8 · 18:45M. Tkocz1.471111113R. Gajda2.508870WSep 8 · 18:00W. Pytlas1.7311114452R. Gajda2.00971111113WSep 8 · 17:10R. Gajda2.008111111123P. Kaczynski1.70113139102
P. Gumulinski10
LSep 9 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.1012911113P. Gumulinski1.671011991LSep 9 · 08:10P. Kurek2.50117911123P. Gumulinski1.50811119102WSep 9 · 07:20K. Schaniel2.107650P. Gumulinski1.671111113WSep 9 · 05:15P. Przewlocki2.757880P. Gumulinski1.401111113LSep 9 · 04:30O. Vincenec2.101011211123P. Gumulinski1.67124115102WSep 9 · 03:00R. Gajda2.007890P. Gumulinski1.731111113LSep 8 · 14:40P. Brozek2.0021112113P. Gumulinski1.731181091WSep 8 · 13:30P. Gumulinski2.2511119113M. Durda1.57461141WSep 8 · 12:15P. Przewlocki2.7571751182P. Gumulinski1.401115118113LSep 8 · 11:00W. Urban2.25158126123P. Gumulinski1.5713111011102
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