TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098569
Played Sep 9Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5113111171191113
Pawel Kurek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:23 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRafal Gajda above · Pawel Kurek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 92 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Rafal Gajda at 57.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Gajda 8–0 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:23What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Gajda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-0 in 8
Gajda
Wrong
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1393 vs Kurek 1408
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 40% vs Kurek 60%
Kurek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 50% vs Kurek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda +1 · Kurek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gajda) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 1.73 / Kurek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gajda)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13098569
Gajda1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 172 of 293
Up 2–0, closes it92% 80 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it75% 121 of 161
Kurek2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 119 of 306
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeGajda8wins
AwayKurek0wins
2 of 8 to a deciderGajda leads 8–0, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda100%7 of 7
AwayKurekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda7Kurek1n = 8Gajda took 7 of 8
S2Gajda5Kurek3n = 8Gajda took 5 of 8
S3Gajda6Kurek2n = 8Gajda took 6 of 8
S4Gajda4Kurek2n = 6Gajda took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricGajdaKurekG − KBasisWins80+8in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match42.031.6+10.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime410 / 792 vs 386 / 76951.8%50.2%410 / 792 vs 386 / 769Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GajdaGajda 1.73/Kurek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Gajda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 3 · 13:05R. Gajda—1111133P. Kurek—66110
WSep 3 · 06:55R. Gajda—111189113P. Kurek—79111162
WAug 20 · 09:50R. Gajda—11119113P. Kurek—341151
WAug 20 · 05:40R. Gajda—1111143P. Kurek—37120
WJul 30 · 13:05R. Gajda—15914113P. Kurek—13111261
WJul 30 · 06:55R. Gajda—117118113P. Kurek—91151172
WJul 2 · 09:25R. Gajda—11611113P. Kurek—711161
WJul 2 · 03:25R. Gajda—41111113P. Kurek—115691
R. Gajda10
WSep 9 · 04:10R. Gajda2.00118711113P. Przewlocki1.7391111672LSep 9 · 03:00R. Gajda2.007890P. Gumulinski1.731111113LSep 8 · 20:20R. Gajda2.1851160K. Juszczyk1.561113113LSep 8 · 18:45M. Tkocz1.471111113R. Gajda2.508870WSep 8 · 18:00W. Pytlas1.7311114452R. Gajda2.00971111113WSep 8 · 17:10R. Gajda2.008111111123P. Kaczynski1.70113139102LSep 8 · 16:00R. Gajda1.741167101S. Juzek1.9141111123WSep 3 · 13:55I. Szymanski3.757370R. Gajda1.251111113WSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133LSep 3 · 12:15R. Gajda2.2011512872M. Sikon1.618111011113
P. Kurek10
LSep 9 · 06:30P. Przewlocki2.1071112163P. Kurek1.6711710141LSep 9 · 04:55P. Kurek1.445650K. Schaniel2.631111113WSep 9 · 03:50P. Kurek1.911111113O. Vincenec1.804850LSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550WSep 8 · 03:55K. Adamus1.708670P. Kurek1.911111113WSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153LSep 8 · 24:50M. Sikon1.7611911113P. Kurek1.96811881LSep 7 · 23:30O. Jadach1.581711512113P. Kurek2.20199111072WSep 7 · 22:40G. Marud1.85116912162P. Kurek1.856111110183LSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek2.1066110R. Gajda1.671111133
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