TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13097983
Played Sep 9Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118115––––
Oliver Vincenec
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:32 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeOliver Vincenec to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Oliver Vincenec below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 50 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Oliver Vincenec at 54.2%
50 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 5–8 Oliver Vincenec Pawel Kurek has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:32What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vincenec
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Vincenec
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1412 vs Vincenec 1384
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 40% vs Vincenec 60%
Vincenec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 60% vs Vincenec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek -1 · Vincenec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vincenec)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.91 / Vincenec 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vincenec)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13097983
Kurek1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 118 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 99
Vincenec1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 147 of 262
Up 2–0, closes it88% 65 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it75% 105 of 141
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek4wins
AwayVincenec6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVincenec leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek57.1%4 of 7
AwayVincenec100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek7Vincenec3n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S2Kurek5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S3Kurek5Vincenec5n = 10split evenly
S4Kurek2Vincenec4n = 6Vincenec took 4 of 6
S5Kurek0Vincenec3n = 3Vincenec took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekVincenecK − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.537.4+0.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekVincenecBasisWin rate · lifetime385 / 767 vs 650 / 143950.2%45.2%385 / 767 vs 650 / 1439Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VincenecKurek 1.91/Vincenec 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vincenec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 08:45P. Kurek—911111042O. Vincenec—115912113
LAug 10 · 09:00P. Kurek—11118962O. Vincenec—791111113
WAug 10 · 04:30P. Kurek—1111113O. Vincenec—8550
LJul 30 · 14:40P. Kurek—9770O. Vincenec—1111113
WJul 30 · 06:05P. Kurek—11411113O. Vincenec—311741
WJul 13 · 10:35P. Kurek—11185123O. Vincenec—81611101
LJul 13 · 03:00P. Kurek—5880O. Vincenec—1111113
LJul 12 · 08:45P. Kurek—1151771O. Vincenec—91119113
WMay 30 · 08:45P. Kurek—1111113O. Vincenec—7530
LApr 12 · 12:20P. Kurek—163111392O. Vincenec—1411715113
P. Kurek10
LSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550WSep 8 · 03:55K. Adamus1.708670P. Kurek1.911111113WSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153LSep 8 · 24:50M. Sikon1.7611911113P. Kurek1.96811881LSep 7 · 23:30O. Jadach1.581711512113P. Kurek2.20199111072WSep 7 · 22:40G. Marud1.85116912162P. Kurek1.856111110183LSep 7 · 21:55K. Adamus1.7011118113P. Kurek2.05651171WSep 7 · 19:55J. Nowak2.201010130P. Kurek1.571212153WSep 7 · 19:10O. Jadach1.559101491P. Kurek2.25111212113WSep 7 · 17:30M. Sikon2.301174111P. Kurek1.5291111133
O. Vincenec10
WSep 8 · 16:40O. Vincenec1.9571111113W. Buczynski1.70114561LSep 8 · 15:05K. Slawinski1.3611913113O. Vincenec2.755111181WSep 8 · 14:20M. Baron1.8741215992O. Vincenec1.8311101311113LSep 8 · 13:30O. Vincenec2.4583100J. Pruszkowski1.451111123WSep 8 · 12:20O. Vincenec2.2011126113S. Szostok1.576101171LSep 8 · 10:40O. Vincenec1.828880W. Buczynski1.881111113WSep 8 · 09:05K. Slawinski1.3691181192O. Vincenec2.75116119113LSep 8 · 08:20S. Szostok1.4611117113O. Vincenec2.40691171WSep 8 · 07:30O. Vincenec2.3711112113J. Pruszkowski1.52991191LSep 8 · 06:20O. Vincenec1.861111115102M. Baron1.80991117123
Upcoming Matches
P. Kurek
Sep 9 · 04:55P. Kurek1.44K. Schaniel2.63—Sep 9 · 05:40P. Kurek2.10R. Gajda1.67—Sep 9 · 06:30P. Kurek1.67P. Przewlocki2.10—Sep 9 · 08:10P. Kurek2.50P. Gumulinski1.50—Sep 9 · 09:50P. Kurek2.10R. Gajda1.67—Sep 9 · 11:00P. Kurek1.44K. Schaniel2.63—Sep 9 · 11:50P. Kurek1.91O. Vincenec1.80—Sep 9 · 12:40P. Kurek1.67P. Przewlocki2.10—Sep 9 · 14:20P. Kurek2.50P. Gumulinski1.50—
O. Vincenec
Sep 9 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.91K. Schaniel1.80—Sep 9 · 06:55O. Vincenec2.00R. Gajda1.73—Sep 9 · 07:45O. Vincenec1.83P. Przewlocki1.83—Sep 9 · 09:00O. Vincenec2.10P. Gumulinski1.67—Sep 9 · 10:10O. Vincenec1.83P. Przewlocki1.83—Sep 9 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.80P. Kurek1.91—Sep 9 · 13:05O. Vincenec2.00R. Gajda1.73—Sep 9 · 14:40O. Vincenec1.91K. Schaniel1.80—
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