TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098446
Played Sep 9Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116711811611––
Rafal Gajda
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:00 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Gajda to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Rafal Gajda below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Rafal Gajda at 57.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 0–8 Rafal Gajda Pawel Kurek has won 0 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:00What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gajda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-8 in 8
Gajda
Correct
gap of 8 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1414 vs Gajda 1382
Kurek
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 60% vs Gajda 40%
Kurek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 50% vs Gajda 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek +1 · Gajda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gajda) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gajda form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 2.10 / Gajda 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gajda)-1.6pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13098446
Kurek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 119 of 306
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 100
Gajda1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 172 of 293
Up 2–0, closes it92% 80 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it75% 121 of 161
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKurek0wins
AwayGajda8wins
2 of 8 to a deciderGajda leads 8–0, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayGajda100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek1Gajda7n = 8Gajda took 7 of 8
S2Kurek3Gajda5n = 8Gajda took 5 of 8
S3Kurek2Gajda6n = 8Gajda took 6 of 8
S4Kurek2Gajda4n = 6Gajda took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricKurekGajdaK − GBasisWins08−8in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match31.642.0−10.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekGajdaBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 772 vs 411 / 79550.3%51.7%388 / 772 vs 411 / 795Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GajdaKurek 2.10/Gajda 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.2%
Gajda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gajda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 3 · 13:05P. Kurek—66110R. Gajda—1111133
LSep 3 · 06:55P. Kurek—79111162R. Gajda—111189113
LAug 20 · 09:50P. Kurek—341151R. Gajda—11119113
LAug 20 · 05:40P. Kurek—37120R. Gajda—1111143
LJul 30 · 13:05P. Kurek—13111261R. Gajda—15914113
LJul 30 · 06:55P. Kurek—91151172R. Gajda—117118113
LJul 2 · 09:25P. Kurek—711161R. Gajda—11611113
LJul 2 · 03:25P. Kurek—115691R. Gajda—41111113
P. Kurek10
WSep 9 · 08:10P. Kurek2.50117911123P. Gumulinski1.50811119102LSep 9 · 06:30P. Przewlocki2.1071112163P. Kurek1.6711710141WSep 9 · 05:40R. Gajda1.73531111112P. Kurek2.00111179133WSep 9 · 03:50P. Kurek1.911111113O. Vincenec1.804850LSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550WSep 8 · 03:55K. Adamus1.708670P. Kurek1.911111113WSep 8 · 01:30J. Nowak2.2775130P. Kurek1.521111153LSep 8 · 24:50M. Sikon1.7611911113P. Kurek1.96811881LSep 7 · 23:30O. Jadach1.581711512113P. Kurek2.20199111072WSep 7 · 22:40G. Marud1.85116912162P. Kurek1.856111110183
R. Gajda10
WSep 9 · 10:35R. Gajda2.10117811113P. Gumulinski1.6781111792WSep 9 · 08:35R. Gajda1.83713611113K. Schaniel1.83111111432LSep 9 · 06:55R. Gajda1.73711211102O. Vincenec2.00116118123LSep 9 · 05:40R. Gajda1.73531111112P. Kurek2.00111179133WSep 9 · 04:10R. Gajda2.00118711113P. Przewlocki1.7391111672LSep 9 · 03:00R. Gajda2.007890P. Gumulinski1.731111113LSep 8 · 20:20R. Gajda2.1851160K. Juszczyk1.561113113LSep 8 · 18:45M. Tkocz1.471111113R. Gajda2.508870WSep 8 · 18:00W. Pytlas1.7311114452R. Gajda2.00971111113WSep 8 · 17:10R. Gajda2.008111111123P. Kaczynski1.70113139102
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