TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098555
Played Sep 9Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118116711118––
Krzysztof Schaniel
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:21 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 73 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Pawel Kurek at 65.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 7–2 Krzysztof Schaniel Krzysztof Schaniel has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:21What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Kurek
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1402 vs Schaniel 1334
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 40% vs Schaniel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 50% vs Schaniel 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek -1 · Schaniel -3
Schaniel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.44 / Schaniel 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Kurek)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13098555
Kurek1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 206 of 309
Up 2–0, closes it93% 99 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it84% 146 of 173
Schaniel2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 186 of 457
Down 0–1, comes back27% 67 of 249
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKurek7wins
AwaySchaniel2wins
2 of 9 to a deciderKurek leads 7–2, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek100%3 of 3
AwaySchaniel33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek3Schaniel6n = 9Schaniel took 6 of 9
S2Kurek4Schaniel5n = 9Schaniel took 5 of 9
S3Kurek7Schaniel2n = 9Kurek took 7 of 9
S4Kurek5Schaniel1n = 6Kurek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home444%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricKurekSchanielK − SBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match38.032.6+5.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime388 / 773 vs 875 / 175050.2%50%388 / 773 vs 875 / 1750Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.44/Schaniel 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 9 · 04:55P. Kurek—5650K. Schaniel—1111113
WAug 20 · 12:40P. Kurek—111011113K. Schaniel—912551
WAug 20 · 06:30P. Kurek—1111123K. Schaniel—43100
WJul 4 · 13:30P. Kurek—511119113K. Schaniel—11661182
WJul 1 · 07:20P. Kurek—81113113K. Schaniel—1191161
WApr 30 · 05:10P. Kurek—81111113K. Schaniel—115431
WApr 30 · 24:00P. Kurek—1191111113K. Schaniel—13116692
WNov 28 · 07:25P. Kurek—11611133K. Schaniel—5114111
LNov 4 · 20:35P. Kurek—10770K. Schaniel—1211113
P. Kurek10
WSep 9 · 12:40P. Przewlocki2.1011611992P. Kurek1.67911511113LSep 9 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.831111104113P. Kurek1.8369121192LSep 9 · 09:50P. Kurek2.10117861R. Gajda1.6761111113WSep 9 · 08:10P. Kurek2.50117911123P. Gumulinski1.50811119102LSep 9 · 06:30P. Przewlocki2.1071112163P. Kurek1.6711710141WSep 9 · 05:40R. Gajda1.73531111112P. Kurek2.00111179133LSep 9 · 04:55P. Kurek1.445650K. Schaniel2.631111113WSep 9 · 03:50P. Kurek1.911111113O. Vincenec1.804850LSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550WSep 8 · 03:55K. Adamus1.708670P. Kurek1.911111113
K. Schaniel10
WSep 9 · 12:15R. Gajda1.80111451192K. Schaniel1.917121113113LSep 9 · 09:25P. Przewlocki2.20461211113K. Schaniel1.61111110832LSep 9 · 08:35R. Gajda1.83713611113K. Schaniel1.83111111432LSep 9 · 07:20K. Schaniel2.107650P. Gumulinski1.671111113WSep 9 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.914570K. Schaniel1.801111113WSep 9 · 04:55P. Kurek1.445650K. Schaniel2.631111113LSep 9 · 03:25P. Przewlocki2.2071111113K. Schaniel1.61119781WSep 7 · 07:45K. Schaniel2.631111113J. Pruszkowski1.449860LSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113WSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080
Upcoming Matches
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K. Schaniel
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