TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13101148
Played Sep 9Finished
Rafal Gajda
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11714125111113911
Krzysztof Schaniel
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Schaniel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Gajda above · Krzysztof Schaniel below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 104 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Krzysztof Schaniel at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Gajda 7–7 Krzysztof Schaniel Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Gajda beat Schaniel 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:19What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gajda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gajda 1383 vs Schaniel 1355
Gajda
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gajda 60% vs Schaniel 20%
Gajda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gajda 50% vs Schaniel 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gajda +3 · Schaniel -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gajda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schaniel form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGajda 1.80 / Schaniel 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gajda)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13101148
Gajda1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 172 of 293
Up 2–0, closes it92% 80 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it75% 121 of 161
Schaniel1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 186 of 457
Down 0–1, comes back27% 67 of 249
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 138
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGajda6wins
AwaySchaniel4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGajda leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGajda100%4 of 4
AwaySchaniel66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gajda4Schaniel6n = 10Schaniel took 6 of 10
S2Gajda7Schaniel3n = 10Gajda took 7 of 10
S3Gajda6Schaniel4n = 10Gajda took 6 of 10
S4Gajda5Schaniel2n = 7Gajda took 5 of 7
S5Gajda1Schaniel2n = 3Schaniel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGajdaSchanielG − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.236.5+2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGajdaSchanielBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 797 vs 875 / 175151.8%50%413 / 797 vs 875 / 1751Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GajdaGajda 1.80/Schaniel 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Gajda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Schaniel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 29 · 11:55R. Gajda—1112133K. Schaniel—810110
LJul 29 · 05:55R. Gajda—101171192K. Schaniel—126118113
WJul 28 · 11:55R. Gajda—711711113K. Schaniel—11611762
LJul 28 · 05:55R. Gajda—2850K. Schaniel—1111113
WJul 23 · 13:05R. Gajda—1111113K. Schaniel—4970
LJul 23 · 06:55R. Gajda—9101161K. Schaniel—11129113
WJun 24 · 11:55R. Gajda—12611113K. Schaniel—1011651
WJun 24 · 05:55R. Gajda—71111113K. Schaniel—114591
LJun 17 · 15:05R. Gajda—1111111292K. Schaniel—139914113
WJun 17 · 09:05R. Gajda—111110113K. Schaniel—861281
R. Gajda10
WSep 9 · 10:35R. Gajda2.10117811113P. Gumulinski1.6781111792WSep 9 · 09:50P. Kurek2.10117861R. Gajda1.6761111113WSep 9 · 08:35R. Gajda1.83713611113K. Schaniel1.83111111432LSep 9 · 06:55R. Gajda1.73711211102O. Vincenec2.00116118123LSep 9 · 05:40R. Gajda1.73531111112P. Kurek2.00111179133WSep 9 · 04:10R. Gajda2.00118711113P. Przewlocki1.7391111672LSep 9 · 03:00R. Gajda2.007890P. Gumulinski1.731111113LSep 8 · 20:20R. Gajda2.1851160K. Juszczyk1.561113113LSep 8 · 18:45M. Tkocz1.471111113R. Gajda2.508870WSep 8 · 18:00W. Pytlas1.7311114452R. Gajda2.00971111113
K. Schaniel10
LSep 9 · 11:00P. Kurek1.4411117113K. Schaniel2.63861181LSep 9 · 09:25P. Przewlocki2.20461211113K. Schaniel1.61111110832LSep 9 · 08:35R. Gajda1.83713611113K. Schaniel1.83111111432LSep 9 · 07:20K. Schaniel2.107650P. Gumulinski1.671111113WSep 9 · 06:05O. Vincenec1.914570K. Schaniel1.801111113WSep 9 · 04:55P. Kurek1.445650K. Schaniel2.631111113LSep 9 · 03:25P. Przewlocki2.2071111113K. Schaniel1.61119781WSep 7 · 07:45K. Schaniel2.631111113J. Pruszkowski1.449860LSep 7 · 06:30K. Schaniel1.731594992J. Nowak2.001311119113WSep 7 · 05:15K. Schaniel1.801112113R. Niemiec1.9191080
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