TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098596
Played Sep 9Finished
Piotr Przewlocki
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119611115911911
Pawel Kurek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:20 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPiotr Przewlocki above · Pawel Kurek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Pawel Kurek at 57.4%
93 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Przewlocki 6–9 Pawel Kurek Piotr Przewlocki has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Przewlocki beat Kurek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:20What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Kurek
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Przewlocki 1305 vs Kurek 1367
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Przewlocki 60% vs Kurek 40%
Przewlocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Przewlocki 40% vs Kurek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Przewlocki -2 · Kurek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrzewlocki 2.10 / Kurek 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kurek)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13098596
Przewlocki2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog38% won 128 of 335
Down 0–1, comes back24% 48 of 204
Down 0–2, comes back11% 10 of 95
Kurek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite67% won 206 of 309
Up 2–0, closes it93% 99 of 106
Up 1–0, closes it84% 146 of 173
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrzewlocki4wins
AwayKurek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKurek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrzewlocki50%3 of 6
AwayKurek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Przewlocki6Kurek4n = 10Przewlocki took 6 of 10
S2Przewlocki5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S3Przewlocki5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S4Przewlocki2Kurek5n = 7Kurek took 5 of 7
S5Przewlocki1Kurek2n = 3Kurek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrzewlockiKurekP − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.839.0−3.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrzewlockiKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime512 / 1082 vs 390 / 77647.3%50.3%512 / 1082 vs 390 / 776Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekPrzewlocki 2.10/Kurek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.4%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 12:40P. Przewlocki—11611992P. Kurek—911511113
WSep 9 · 06:30P. Przewlocki—71112163P. Kurek—11710141
WAug 12 · 13:05P. Przewlocki—111135113P. Kurek—78111132
LAug 12 · 04:10P. Przewlocki—9980P. Kurek—1111113
WJul 28 · 22:35P. Przewlocki—1113113P. Kurek—81150
LJul 28 · 15:00P. Przewlocki—11291262P. Kurek—9111110113
LJul 13 · 09:50P. Przewlocki—6111041P. Kurek—11912113
WJul 13 · 05:40P. Przewlocki—1211113P. Kurek—10840
LJul 1 · 03:25P. Przewlocki—541451P. Kurek—111112113
LMay 28 · 03:10P. Przewlocki—117671P. Kurek—91111113
P. Przewlocki10
LSep 9 · 11:25P. Przewlocki2.75811101152P. Gumulinski1.40116129113LSep 9 · 10:10O. Vincenec1.831161413113P. Przewlocki1.83911121562WSep 9 · 09:25P. Przewlocki2.20461211113K. Schaniel1.61111110832WSep 9 · 07:45P. Przewlocki1.83311811193O. Vincenec1.83117116172WSep 9 · 06:30P. Przewlocki2.1071112163P. Kurek1.6711710141LSep 9 · 05:15P. Przewlocki2.757880P. Gumulinski1.401111113LSep 9 · 04:10R. Gajda2.00118711113P. Przewlocki1.7391111672WSep 9 · 03:25P. Przewlocki2.2071111113K. Schaniel1.61119781LSep 8 · 13:55R. Idaczyk1.731111153P. Przewlocki2.0059130LSep 8 · 13:05P. Brozek1.8091111143P. Przewlocki1.911176121
P. Kurek10
LSep 9 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.831111104113P. Kurek1.8369121192WSep 9 · 11:00P. Kurek1.4411117113K. Schaniel2.63861181LSep 9 · 09:50P. Kurek2.10117861R. Gajda1.6761111113WSep 9 · 08:10P. Kurek2.50117911123P. Gumulinski1.50811119102LSep 9 · 06:30P. Przewlocki2.1071112163P. Kurek1.6711710141WSep 9 · 05:40R. Gajda1.73531111112P. Kurek2.00111179133LSep 9 · 04:55P. Kurek1.445650K. Schaniel2.631111113WSep 9 · 03:50P. Kurek1.911111113O. Vincenec1.804850LSep 8 · 04:40G. Marud1.851111113P. Kurek1.856550WSep 8 · 03:55K. Adamus1.708670P. Kurek1.911111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Przewlocki
P. Kurek
Sep 9 · 14:20P. Kurek2.38P. Gumulinski1.53—Sep 10 · 03:00P. Kurek—K. Slawinski——Sep 10 · 04:00P. Kurek1.53R. Idaczyk2.38—Sep 10 · 05:50P. Kurek1.44M. Sikon2.63—Sep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek2.38L. Oracz1.53—Sep 10 · 08:35P. Kurek1.73W. Urban2.00—Sep 10 · 09:50P. Kurek1.44M. Sikon2.63—Sep 10 · 12:15P. Kurek1.73W. Urban2.00—Sep 10 · 13:05P. Kurek2.38L. Oracz1.53—
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