TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13106410
Played Sep 10Finished
Rafal Idaczyk
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8116111012––––
Mateusz Sikon
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Sikon to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRafal Idaczyk above · Mateusz Sikon below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 58 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Mateusz Sikon at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Rafal Idaczyk 3–0 Mateusz Sikon Mateusz Sikon has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:33What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sikon
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Idaczyk
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Idaczyk 1432 vs Sikon 1359
Idaczyk
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Idaczyk 60% vs Sikon 20%
Idaczyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Idaczyk 70% vs Sikon 40%
Idaczyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Idaczyk -2 · Sikon -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sikon)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sikon form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIdaczyk 2.10 / Sikon 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sikon)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13106410
Idaczyk2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 106 of 278
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 108
Sikon1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 53 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it79% 19 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it75% 33 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeIdaczyk3wins
AwaySikon0wins
2 of 3 to a deciderIdaczyk leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Idaczyk2Sikon1n = 3Idaczyk took 2 of 3
S2Idaczyk2Sikon1n = 3Idaczyk took 2 of 3
S3Idaczyk0Sikon3n = 3Sikon took 3 of 3
S4Idaczyk3Sikon0n = 3Idaczyk took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricIdaczykSikonI − SBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match50.346.0+4.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIdaczykSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 971 vs 149 / 39349.4%37.9%480 / 971 vs 149 / 393Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SikonIdaczyk 2.10/Sikon 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sikon · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sikon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 10 · 06:30R. Idaczyk—1111312113M. Sikon—138111082
WJul 20 · 05:15R. Idaczyk—141112163M. Sikon—12514141
WJun 24 · 10:10R. Idaczyk—1210611113M. Sikon—101211732
R. Idaczyk10
LSep 10 · 11:25R. Idaczyk2.6312850K. Slawinski1.441411113LSep 10 · 10:10L. Oracz1.53111176153R. Idaczyk2.38821111132WSep 10 · 09:25R. Idaczyk1.831111113W. Urban1.834970WSep 10 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.6311101011113L. Oracz1.4491212752WSep 10 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.001111312113M. Sikon1.73138111082WSep 10 · 05:30R. Idaczyk2.75611116133K. Slawinski1.40117911112WSep 10 · 04:00P. Kurek1.537860R. Idaczyk2.381111113WSep 10 · 03:20R. Idaczyk1.831111133W. Urban1.8356110WSep 8 · 13:55R. Idaczyk1.731111153P. Przewlocki2.0059130LSep 8 · 12:40R. Idaczyk1.674930W. Urban2.101111113
M. Sikon10
LSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890WSep 10 · 11:00M. Sikon2.001111113W. Urban1.735570LSep 10 · 09:50M. Sikon2.63116461P. Kurek1.4451111113LSep 10 · 08:10M. Sikon3.75118951K. Slawinski1.2531111113LSep 10 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.001111312113M. Sikon1.73138111082LSep 10 · 05:50P. Kurek1.44981111113M. Sikon2.6311119882LSep 10 · 04:40M. Sikon3.25411741W. Urban1.3311711113WSep 10 · 03:40M. Sikon3.5081211113L. Oracz1.281110891WSep 9 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek1.831111981M. Sikon1.8391311113LSep 9 · 07:10M. Lebek1.7051111113M. Sikon2.00115491
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