TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103512
Played Sep 10Finished
Mateusz Sikon
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115115117––––
Wojciech Urban
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:47 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeWojciech Urban to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Sikon above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 50 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Wojciech Urban at 60.9%
50 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Sikon 2–5 Wojciech Urban Mateusz Sikon has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:47What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Urban
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Urban
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sikon 1369 vs Urban 1437
Urban
Wrong
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sikon 20% vs Urban 60%
Urban
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sikon 50% vs Urban 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sikon -4 · Urban -1
Sikon
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Urban) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sikon form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSikon 2.00 / Urban 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Urban)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13103512
Sikon2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 95 of 277
Down 0–1, comes back15% 26 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 111
Urban1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 181 of 310
Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it74% 127 of 172
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSikon2wins
AwayUrban5wins
2 of 7 to a deciderUrban leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSikonn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayUrban80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sikon2Urban5n = 7Urban took 5 of 7
S2Sikon4Urban3n = 7Sikon took 4 of 7
S3Sikon4Urban3n = 7Sikon took 4 of 7
S4Sikon2Urban4n = 6Urban took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricSikonUrbanS − UBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match38.740.0−1.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSikonUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 390 vs 749 / 158538%47.3%148 / 390 vs 749 / 1585Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.238.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UrbanSikon 2.00/Urban 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Urban · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sikon won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 10 · 04:40M. Sikon—411741W. Urban—11711113
WSep 2 · 03:35M. Sikon—11711123W. Urban—9117101
WSep 2 · 02:45M. Sikon—91111113W. Urban—115841
LSep 1 · 02:10M. Sikon—111110692W. Urban—761211113
LAug 31 · 23:05M. Sikon—891191W. Urban—11116113
LAug 18 · 01:10M. Sikon—86110W. Urban—1111133
LJul 1 · 24:10M. Sikon—714111382W. Urban—1112515113
M. Sikon10
LSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890LSep 10 · 09:50M. Sikon2.63116461P. Kurek1.4451111113LSep 10 · 08:10M. Sikon3.75118951K. Slawinski1.2531111113LSep 10 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.001111312113M. Sikon1.73138111082LSep 10 · 05:50P. Kurek1.44981111113M. Sikon2.6311119882LSep 10 · 04:40M. Sikon3.25411741W. Urban1.3311711113WSep 10 · 03:40M. Sikon3.5081211113L. Oracz1.281110891WSep 9 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek1.831111981M. Sikon1.8391311113LSep 9 · 07:10M. Lebek1.7051111113M. Sikon2.00115491WSep 9 · 06:25M. Sikon2.171111113O. Sokolowski1.567980
W. Urban10
LSep 10 · 12:15P. Kurek1.731511113W. Urban2.0013960LSep 10 · 09:25R. Idaczyk1.831111113W. Urban1.834970WSep 10 · 08:35P. Kurek1.80913891W. Urban1.91111111113LSep 10 · 07:20W. Urban2.63811461K. Slawinski1.4411611113LSep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.7312411113W. Urban2.001011891WSep 10 · 04:40M. Sikon3.25411741W. Urban1.3311711113LSep 10 · 03:20R. Idaczyk1.831111133W. Urban1.8356110WSep 9 · 16:40B. Madej2.7569100W. Urban1.361111123WSep 9 · 15:55K. Adamus1.67511881W. Urban2.1011511113WSep 9 · 13:55S. Juzek1.941311571W. Urban1.71111311113
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