TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103684
Played Sep 10Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118119––––
Mateusz Sikon
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Mateusz Sikon below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 79.4%
56 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 8–4 Mateusz Sikon Mateusz Sikon has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Oracz
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1541 vs Sikon 1367
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Sikon 20%
Oracz
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 50% vs Sikon 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +2 · Sikon +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 79% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Oracz form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.30 / Sikon 3.40
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Oracz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13103684
Oracz1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 376 of 596
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it83% 294 of 355
Sikon3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 95 of 277
Down 0–1, comes back15% 26 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 111
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz6wins
AwaySikon4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz71.4%5 of 7
AwaySikon66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz7Sikon3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S2Oracz6Sikon4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S3Oracz7Sikon3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S4Oracz2Sikon2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczSikonO − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match33.628.0+5.6per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczSikonBasisWin rate · lifetime825 / 1482 vs 149 / 39255.7%38%825 / 1482 vs 149 / 392Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.30/Sikon 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.7%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 03:40L. Oracz—1110891M. Sikon—81211113
WSep 7 · 02:45L. Oracz—61112113M. Sikon—1171081
WSep 6 · 23:05L. Oracz—1111113M. Sikon—5660
LAug 28 · 22:35L. Oracz—491181M. Sikon—11117113
WAug 28 · 15:00L. Oracz—1111113M. Sikon—7460
WAug 27 · 14:20L. Oracz—1111123M. Sikon—96100
WAug 27 · 08:10L. Oracz—1111113M. Sikon—7360
LAug 18 · 03:05L. Oracz—3470M. Sikon—1111113
LAug 12 · 24:10L. Oracz—117711102M. Sikon—411116123
WAug 11 · 20:30L. Oracz—1111113M. Sikon—2440
L. Oracz10
WSep 10 · 10:10L. Oracz1.53111176153R. Idaczyk2.38821111132WSep 10 · 09:00L. Oracz2.101111153K. Slawinski1.6748130LSep 10 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.6311101011113L. Oracz1.4491212752LSep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek2.3861111113L. Oracz1.53116731WSep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.7312411113W. Urban2.001011891WSep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz2.0012815113K. Slawinski1.7310111391LSep 10 · 03:40M. Sikon3.5081211113L. Oracz1.281110891WSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100LSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113LSep 8 · 23:45L. Oracz1.50711581G. Jurowicz2.5011711113
M. Sikon10
WSep 10 · 11:00M. Sikon2.001111113W. Urban1.735570LSep 10 · 09:50M. Sikon2.63116461P. Kurek1.4451111113LSep 10 · 08:10M. Sikon3.75118951K. Slawinski1.2531111113LSep 10 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.001111312113M. Sikon1.73138111082LSep 10 · 05:50P. Kurek1.44981111113M. Sikon2.6311119882LSep 10 · 04:40M. Sikon3.25411741W. Urban1.3311711113WSep 10 · 03:40M. Sikon3.5081211113L. Oracz1.281110891WSep 9 · 08:00J. Kaczmarek1.831111981M. Sikon1.8391311113LSep 9 · 07:10M. Lebek1.7051111113M. Sikon2.00115491WSep 9 · 06:25M. Sikon2.171111113O. Sokolowski1.567980
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