TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103966
Played Sep 10Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141181513––––
Kacper Slawinski
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:26 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeKacper Slawinski to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Kacper Slawinski below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 15-13
Point 62 set 3, 15-13 — our read held Kacper Slawinski at 55.3%
62 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 4–8 Kacper Slawinski Lukasz Oracz has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:26What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Slawinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Slawinski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1507 vs Slawinski 1492
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Slawinski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 40% vs Slawinski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -2 · Slawinski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Slawinski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slawinski form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 2.10 / Slawinski 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Slawinski)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13103966
Oracz2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 139 of 308
Down 0–1, comes back24% 41 of 169
Down 0–2, comes back9% 8 of 89
Slawinski1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite70% won 97 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it82% 70 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz4wins
AwaySlawinski6wins
Slawinski leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%4 of 4
AwaySlawinski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz4Slawinski6n = 10Slawinski took 6 of 10
S2Oracz7Slawinski3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S3Oracz2Slawinski8n = 10Slawinski took 8 of 10
S4Oracz2Slawinski3n = 5Slawinski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczSlawinskiO − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.934.1−2.2per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczSlawinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime823 / 1480 vs 616 / 99355.6%62%823 / 1480 vs 616 / 993Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlawinskiOracz 2.10/Slawinski 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.4%
Slawinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 12:20L. Oracz—8660K. Slawinski—1111113
WAug 13 · 08:20L. Oracz—1111113K. Slawinski—6940
LJan 26 · 15:20L. Oracz—711481K. Slawinski—11711113
WJan 26 · 07:20L. Oracz—11118113K. Slawinski—991131
WDec 30 · 17:40L. Oracz—11119113K. Slawinski—771181
LDec 30 · 11:40L. Oracz—71180K. Slawinski—1113113
WDec 4 · 15:20L. Oracz—1311113K. Slawinski—11890
LDec 4 · 07:20L. Oracz—1111571K. Slawinski—13911113
LJun 19 · 14:20L. Oracz—41370K. Slawinski—1115113
LJun 19 · 06:20L. Oracz—611981K. Slawinski—11711113
L. Oracz10
LSep 10 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.6311101011113L. Oracz1.4491212752LSep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek2.3861111113L. Oracz1.53116731WSep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.7312411113W. Urban2.001011891WSep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz2.0012815113K. Slawinski1.7310111391LSep 10 · 03:40M. Sikon3.5081211113L. Oracz1.281110891WSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100LSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113LSep 8 · 23:45L. Oracz1.50711581G. Jurowicz2.5011711113WSep 8 · 22:10L. Oracz1.8011611113M. Koczyba1.91411961LSep 8 · 21:00L. Oracz1.839790P. Adamus1.831111113
K. Slawinski10
WSep 10 · 08:10M. Sikon3.75118951K. Slawinski1.2531111113LSep 10 · 05:30R. Idaczyk2.75611116133K. Slawinski1.40117911112LSep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz2.0012815113K. Slawinski1.7310111391WSep 10 · 03:00P. Kurek2.63861151K. Slawinski1.4411113113LSep 8 · 16:20K. Slawinski1.67111013151S. Szostok2.0041215173WSep 8 · 15:05K. Slawinski1.3611913113O. Vincenec2.755111181WSep 8 · 13:55K. Slawinski1.29981111113W. Buczynski3.1011113882WSep 8 · 12:45M. Baron2.609124101K. Slawinski1.42111011123WSep 8 · 11:55K. Slawinski1.7911911133J. Pruszkowski1.848118111LSep 8 · 10:20K. Slawinski1.36871171M. Baron2.7511118113
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