TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104074
Played Sep 10Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181127116111513
Rafal Idaczyk
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:47 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Rafal Idaczyk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 15-13
Point 95 set 5, 15-13 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 67.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 18–11 Rafal Idaczyk Rafal Idaczyk has won 11 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Idaczyk beat Oracz 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:47What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-11 in 29
Oracz
Correct
gap of 7 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1533 vs Idaczyk 1428
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 40% vs Idaczyk 100%
Idaczyk
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 40% vs Idaczyk 70%
Idaczyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz -2 · Idaczyk +5
Idaczyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Idaczyk form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.53 / Idaczyk 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Oracz)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13104074
Oracz1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 376 of 596
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it83% 294 of 355
Idaczyk2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog38% won 106 of 278
Down 0–1, comes back15% 24 of 160
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz5wins
AwayIdaczyk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz100%4 of 4
AwayIdaczyk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz4Idaczyk6n = 10Idaczyk took 6 of 10
S2Oracz7Idaczyk3n = 10Oracz took 7 of 10
S3Oracz4Idaczyk6n = 10Idaczyk took 6 of 10
S4Oracz4Idaczyk4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczIdaczykO − IBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.636.9+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczIdaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime824 / 1481 vs 478 / 96755.6%49.4%824 / 1481 vs 478 / 967Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.235.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.53/Idaczyk 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 07:45L. Oracz—91212752R. Idaczyk—11101011113
WJul 15 · 08:00L. Oracz—11811113R. Idaczyk—911751
LJun 29 · 13:55L. Oracz—9770R. Idaczyk—1111113
LJun 29 · 04:10L. Oracz—5119131R. Idaczyk—11411153
WJun 25 · 03:35L. Oracz—11129113R. Idaczyk—8101141
LJun 14 · 15:30L. Oracz—1011591R. Idaczyk—12311113
WJun 14 · 09:30L. Oracz—711711113R. Idaczyk—11611642
LJun 12 · 06:45L. Oracz—1011891R. Idaczyk—12811113
WJun 6 · 12:45L. Oracz—14512113R. Idaczyk—12111071
WJun 6 · 10:20L. Oracz—1211113R. Idaczyk—10280
L. Oracz10
WSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890WSep 10 · 09:00L. Oracz2.101111153K. Slawinski1.6748130LSep 10 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.6311101011113L. Oracz1.4491212752LSep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek2.3861111113L. Oracz1.53116731WSep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.7312411113W. Urban2.001011891WSep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz2.0012815113K. Slawinski1.7310111391LSep 10 · 03:40M. Sikon3.5081211113L. Oracz1.281110891WSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100LSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113LSep 8 · 23:45L. Oracz1.50711581G. Jurowicz2.5011711113
R. Idaczyk10
LSep 10 · 11:25R. Idaczyk2.6312850K. Slawinski1.441411113WSep 10 · 09:25R. Idaczyk1.831111113W. Urban1.834970WSep 10 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.6311101011113L. Oracz1.4491212752WSep 10 · 06:30R. Idaczyk2.001111312113M. Sikon1.73138111082WSep 10 · 05:30R. Idaczyk2.75611116133K. Slawinski1.40117911112WSep 10 · 04:00P. Kurek1.537860R. Idaczyk2.381111113WSep 10 · 03:20R. Idaczyk1.831111133W. Urban1.8356110WSep 8 · 13:55R. Idaczyk1.731111153P. Przewlocki2.0059130LSep 8 · 12:40R. Idaczyk1.674930W. Urban2.101111113WSep 8 · 11:25R. Idaczyk5.0071111133M. Durda1.141178111
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