TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104067
Played Sep 10Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1513119116––––
Wojciech Urban
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:47 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPawel Kurek above · Wojciech Urban below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 65 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Pawel Kurek at 54.7%
65 points played in total.
H2H Pawel Kurek 10–10 Wojciech Urban Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Urban beat Kurek 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:47What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1371 vs Urban 1416
Urban
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 60% vs Urban 20%
Kurek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 40% vs Urban 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek -1 · Urban -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kurek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Urban form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.73 / Urban 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kurek)+1.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13104067
Kurek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite66% won 208 of 314
Up 2–0, closes it94% 100 of 107
Up 1–0, closes it84% 147 of 175
Urban2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 228 of 560
Down 0–1, comes back20% 60 of 308
Down 0–2, comes back6% 12 of 189
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurek5wins
AwayUrban5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek100%5 of 5
AwayUrban100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek5Urban5n = 10split evenly
S2Kurek6Urban4n = 10Kurek took 6 of 10
S3Kurek7Urban3n = 10Kurek took 7 of 10
S4Kurek1Urban3n = 4Urban took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurekUrbanK − UBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.733.2+1.5per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekUrbanBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 784 vs 750 / 158950.1%47.2%393 / 784 vs 750 / 1589Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.73/Urban 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 08:45P. Kurek—7790W. Urban—1111113
WAug 28 · 07:35P. Kurek—1111113W. Urban—6940
WAug 18 · 21:10P. Kurek—1111113W. Urban—6770
LAug 4 · 02:45P. Kurek—6135131W. Urban—111111153
WAug 3 · 23:05P. Kurek—1111143W. Urban—79120
LAug 3 · 02:45P. Kurek—941271W. Urban—111110113
LAug 2 · 23:05P. Kurek—111080W. Urban—1312113
WJul 21 · 13:30P. Kurek—111111123W. Urban—6138101
LJul 21 · 07:20P. Kurek—61111982W. Urban—115711113
WJul 12 · 03:35P. Kurek—1111123W. Urban—58100
P. Kurek10
LSep 10 · 10:35P. Kurek2.757590K. Slawinski1.401111113WSep 10 · 09:50M. Sikon2.63116461P. Kurek1.4451111113LSep 10 · 08:35P. Kurek1.80913891W. Urban1.91111111113WSep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek2.3861111113L. Oracz1.53116731WSep 10 · 05:50P. Kurek1.44981111113M. Sikon2.6311119882LSep 10 · 04:00P. Kurek1.537860R. Idaczyk2.381111113LSep 10 · 03:00P. Kurek2.63861151K. Slawinski1.4411113113LSep 9 · 14:20P. Kurek2.38711261P. Gumulinski1.5311311113WSep 9 · 12:40P. Przewlocki2.1011611992P. Kurek1.67911511113LSep 9 · 11:50O. Vincenec1.831111104113P. Kurek1.8369121192
W. Urban10
LSep 10 · 11:00M. Sikon2.001111113W. Urban1.735570LSep 10 · 09:25R. Idaczyk1.831111113W. Urban1.834970WSep 10 · 08:35P. Kurek1.80913891W. Urban1.91111111113LSep 10 · 07:20W. Urban2.63811461K. Slawinski1.4411611113LSep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.7312411113W. Urban2.001011891WSep 10 · 04:40M. Sikon3.25411741W. Urban1.3311711113LSep 10 · 03:20R. Idaczyk1.831111133W. Urban1.8356110WSep 9 · 16:40B. Madej2.7569100W. Urban1.361111123WSep 9 · 15:55K. Adamus1.67511881W. Urban2.1011511113WSep 9 · 13:55S. Juzek1.941311571W. Urban1.71111311113
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