TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13103936
Played Sep 10Finished
Lukasz Oracz
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411114113119––
Pawel Kurek
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:17 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeLukasz Oracz to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukasz Oracz above · Pawel Kurek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 64 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Lukasz Oracz at 63.2%
64 points played in total.
H2H Lukasz Oracz 16–5 Pawel Kurek Pawel Kurek has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Kurek beat Oracz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:17What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Oracz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-5 in 21
Oracz
Correct
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oracz 1549 vs Kurek 1368
Oracz
Correct
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oracz 60% vs Kurek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oracz 60% vs Kurek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oracz +3 · Kurek +1
Oracz
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Oracz) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kurek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOracz 1.50 / Kurek 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Oracz)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13103936
Oracz1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 376 of 596
Up 2–0, closes it97% 202 of 209
Up 1–0, closes it83% 294 of 355
Kurek2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog39% won 121 of 312
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOracz7wins
AwayKurek3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOracz leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOracz83.3%5 of 6
AwayKurek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oracz6Kurek4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S2Oracz5Kurek5n = 10split evenly
S3Oracz6Kurek4n = 10Oracz took 6 of 10
S4Oracz5Kurek2n = 7Oracz took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricOraczKurekO − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.032.1+4.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOraczKurekBasisWin rate · lifetime826 / 1483 vs 394 / 78555.7%50.2%826 / 1483 vs 394 / 785Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OraczOracz 1.50/Kurek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Oracz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Oracz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 06:55L. Oracz—116731P. Kurek—61111113
WSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz—1111113P. Kurek—3280
WSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz—1112511113P. Kurek—61411662
LSep 1 · 14:45L. Oracz—8118131P. Kurek—11611153
WSep 1 · 11:05L. Oracz—14911113P. Kurek—1211791
WAug 20 · 11:00L. Oracz—91111113P. Kurek—117681
WAug 20 · 04:55L. Oracz—91111113P. Kurek—119691
WAug 15 · 01:45L. Oracz—1111113P. Kurek—5770
WAug 14 · 16:15L. Oracz—11911103P. Kurek—611531
LAug 8 · 02:35L. Oracz—6650P. Kurek—1111113
L. Oracz10
WSep 10 · 11:50L. Oracz1.301111113M. Sikon3.406890WSep 10 · 10:10L. Oracz1.53111176153R. Idaczyk2.38821111132WSep 10 · 09:00L. Oracz2.101111153K. Slawinski1.6748130LSep 10 · 07:45R. Idaczyk2.6311101011113L. Oracz1.4491212752LSep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek2.3861111113L. Oracz1.53116731WSep 10 · 06:10L. Oracz1.7312411113W. Urban2.001011891WSep 10 · 04:20L. Oracz2.0012815113K. Slawinski1.7310111391LSep 10 · 03:40M. Sikon3.5081211113L. Oracz1.281110891WSep 9 · 02:35L. Oracz1.671111123J. Nowak2.1058100LSep 9 · 01:00L. Oracz1.83116871G. Marud1.8361111113
P. Kurek10
WSep 10 · 12:15P. Kurek1.731511113W. Urban2.0013960LSep 10 · 10:35P. Kurek2.757590K. Slawinski1.401111113WSep 10 · 09:50M. Sikon2.63116461P. Kurek1.4451111113LSep 10 · 08:35P. Kurek1.80913891W. Urban1.91111111113WSep 10 · 06:55P. Kurek2.3861111113L. Oracz1.53116731WSep 10 · 05:50P. Kurek1.44981111113M. Sikon2.6311119882LSep 10 · 04:00P. Kurek1.537860R. Idaczyk2.381111113LSep 10 · 03:00P. Kurek2.63861151K. Slawinski1.4411113113LSep 9 · 14:20P. Kurek2.38711261P. Gumulinski1.5311311113WSep 9 · 12:40P. Przewlocki2.1011611992P. Kurek1.67911511113
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