TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119922
Played Sep 13Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111210811511––
Jacek Wieczerzak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSebastian Szostok above · Jacek Wieczerzak below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Sebastian Szostok at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Szostok 4–3 Jacek Wieczerzak Jacek Wieczerzak has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:54What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Wieczerzak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1468 vs Wieczerzak 1452
Szostok
Wrong
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 40% vs Wieczerzak 60%
Wieczerzak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 40% vs Wieczerzak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok -2 · Wieczerzak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Szostok)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.83 / Wieczerzak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Szostok)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13119922
Szostok1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Wieczerzak1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSzostok4wins
AwayWieczerzak3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderSzostok leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostokn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayWieczerzak50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok1Wieczerzak6n = 7Wieczerzak took 6 of 7
S2Szostok4Wieczerzak3n = 7Szostok took 4 of 7
S3Szostok3Wieczerzak4n = 7Wieczerzak took 4 of 7
S4Szostok5Wieczerzak1n = 6Szostok took 5 of 6
S5Szostok2Wieczerzak1n = 3Szostok took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricSzostokWieczerzakS − WBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match38.440.0−1.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokWieczerzakBasisWin rate · lifetime920 / 1567 vs 141 / 26458.7%53.4%920 / 1567 vs 141 / 264Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSzostok 1.83/Wieczerzak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wieczerzak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 5 · 11:50S. Szostok177640J. Wieczerzak331111113
WAug 23 · 11:50S. Szostok3911611113J. Wieczerzak35811881
LAug 23 · 03:50S. Szostok341051271J. Wieczerzak44121110113
WAug 2 · 13:05S. Szostok53915711113J. Wieczerzak47111311482
LAug 2 · 06:55S. Szostok3961161152J. Wieczerzak50119118113
WJul 11 · 10:10S. Szostok4071111113J. Wieczerzak25113651
WJul 11 · 07:45S. Szostok47611811113J. Wieczerzak4611911782
S. Szostok10
LSep 13 · 03:50M. Lach2.10111166143S. Szostok1.67771111122LSep 11 · 16:20J. Pruszkowski1.74671111113S. Szostok1.9511115772WSep 11 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.85711110S. Szostok1.801113133LSep 11 · 14:45S. Szostok1.601011101182P. Kurek2.10124127113WSep 11 · 13:10S. Szostok1.851111113G. Wichowski1.809770WSep 11 · 12:20P. Mecik2.7510911111S. Szostok1.3612115133WSep 11 · 11:05S. Szostok1.601111113P. Kurek2.108670LSep 11 · 09:30S. Szostok1.866101131R. Skotniczny1.8011124113LSep 11 · 08:20S. Szostok1.38711111152P. Mecik2.65119139113LSep 11 · 06:45S. Szostok1.87129111272J. Pruszkowski1.831411710113
J. Wieczerzak10
WSep 13 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.1010870J. Wieczerzak1.671211113LSep 12 · 16:40J. Wieczerzak1.836540F. Witczak1.861111113WSep 12 · 15:05M. Oracz1.806970J. Wieczerzak1.901111113LSep 12 · 14:20M. Lach1.761111113J. Wieczerzak1.908990WSep 12 · 13:30J. Wieczerzak1.9512117113W. Wojtaszczyk1.771041181WSep 12 · 12:20J. Wieczerzak1.801111611113D. Morawiec1.8652111382LSep 12 · 10:40J. Wieczerzak1.831157101F. Witczak1.8681111123LSep 12 · 09:05M. Oracz1.8011112123J. Wieczerzak1.909511101WSep 12 · 08:20D. Morawiec1.91123911112J. Wieczerzak1.731011119133LSep 12 · 07:30J. Wieczerzak1.9971050W. Wojtaszczyk1.681112113
Upcoming Matches
S. Szostok
Sep 13 · 06:05S. Szostok1.83W. Wojtaszczyk1.83—Sep 13 · 06:55S. Szostok1.53Z. Sobkow2.38—Sep 13 · 07:45S. Szostok2.38A. Cichocki1.53—Sep 13 · 09:00S. Szostok1.83J. Wieczerzak1.83—Sep 13 · 10:10S. Szostok2.38A. Cichocki1.53—Sep 13 · 11:50S. Szostok1.67M. Lach2.10—Sep 13 · 13:05S. Szostok1.53Z. Sobkow2.38—Sep 13 · 14:40S. Szostok1.83W. Wojtaszczyk1.83—
J. Wieczerzak
Sep 13 · 05:15J. Wieczerzak2.10A. Cichocki1.67—Sep 13 · 07:20J. Wieczerzak2.00W. Wojtaszczyk1.73—Sep 13 · 08:10J. Wieczerzak1.80M. Lach1.91—Sep 13 · 09:00J. Wieczerzak1.83S. Szostok1.83—Sep 13 · 10:35J. Wieczerzak1.67Z. Sobkow2.10—Sep 13 · 11:25J. Wieczerzak2.20A. Cichocki1.61—Sep 13 · 13:30J. Wieczerzak2.00W. Wojtaszczyk1.73—Sep 13 · 14:20J. Wieczerzak1.80M. Lach1.91—
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