TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120025
Played Sep 13Finished
Sebastian Szostok
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1186111012117117
Jacek Wieczerzak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Szostok above · Jacek Wieczerzak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Sebastian Szostok at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Szostok 4–4 Jacek Wieczerzak Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:24What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Wieczerzak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szostok 1440 vs Wieczerzak 1481
Wieczerzak
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szostok 20% vs Wieczerzak 80%
Wieczerzak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szostok 40% vs Wieczerzak 70%
Wieczerzak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szostok -2 · Wieczerzak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wieczerzak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wieczerzak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzostok 1.83 / Wieczerzak 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wieczerzak)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13120025
Szostok1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Wieczerzak1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSzostok4wins
AwayWieczerzak4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzostokn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayWieczerzak57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szostok1Wieczerzak7n = 8Wieczerzak took 7 of 8
S2Szostok5Wieczerzak3n = 8Szostok took 5 of 8
S3Szostok3Wieczerzak5n = 8Wieczerzak took 5 of 8
S4Szostok5Wieczerzak2n = 7Szostok took 5 of 7
S5Szostok2Wieczerzak1n = 3Szostok took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricSzostokWieczerzakS − WBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match37.440.4−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzostokWieczerzakBasisWin rate · lifetime918 / 1567 vs 144 / 26858.6%53.7%918 / 1567 vs 144 / 268Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WieczerzakSzostok 1.83/Wieczerzak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wieczerzak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Szostok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 13 · 04:30S. Szostok30512851J. Wieczerzak43111011113
LSep 5 · 11:50S. Szostok177640J. Wieczerzak331111113
WAug 23 · 11:50S. Szostok3911611113J. Wieczerzak35811881
LAug 23 · 03:50S. Szostok341051271J. Wieczerzak44121110113
WAug 2 · 13:05S. Szostok53915711113J. Wieczerzak47111311482
LAug 2 · 06:55S. Szostok3961161152J. Wieczerzak50119118113
WJul 11 · 10:10S. Szostok4071111113J. Wieczerzak25113651
WJul 11 · 07:45S. Szostok47611811113J. Wieczerzak4611911782
S. Szostok10
LSep 13 · 07:45A. Cichocki1.501111113S. Szostok2.507880LSep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow2.3891111113S. Szostok1.53116751WSep 13 · 06:05S. Szostok1.83111110113W. Wojtaszczyk1.83871271LSep 13 · 04:30S. Szostok1.83512851J. Wieczerzak1.83111011113LSep 13 · 03:50M. Lach2.10111166143S. Szostok1.67771111122LSep 11 · 16:20J. Pruszkowski1.74671111113S. Szostok1.9511115772WSep 11 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.85711110S. Szostok1.801113133LSep 11 · 14:45S. Szostok1.601011101182P. Kurek2.10124127113WSep 11 · 13:10S. Szostok1.851111113G. Wichowski1.809770WSep 11 · 12:20P. Mecik2.7510911111S. Szostok1.3612115133
J. Wieczerzak10
WSep 13 · 08:10M. Lach1.911110691J. Wieczerzak1.8081211113WSep 13 · 07:20W. Wojtaszczyk1.739950J. Wieczerzak2.001111113LSep 13 · 05:15A. Cichocki1.671512116113J. Wieczerzak2.10171091182WSep 13 · 04:30S. Szostok1.83512851J. Wieczerzak1.83111011113WSep 13 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.1010870J. Wieczerzak1.671211113LSep 12 · 16:40J. Wieczerzak1.836540F. Witczak1.861111113WSep 12 · 15:05M. Oracz1.806970J. Wieczerzak1.901111113LSep 12 · 14:20M. Lach1.761111113J. Wieczerzak1.908990WSep 12 · 13:30J. Wieczerzak1.9512117113W. Wojtaszczyk1.771041181WSep 12 · 12:20J. Wieczerzak1.801111611113D. Morawiec1.8652111382
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