TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13119927
Played Sep 13Finished
Zbigniew Sobkow
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116117115––
Sebastian Szostok
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:53 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeSebastian Szostok to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbigniew Sobkow above · Sebastian Szostok below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 71 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Sebastian Szostok at 61.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Zbigniew Sobkow 2–2 Sebastian Szostok Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:53What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Szostok
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobkow 1260 vs Szostok 1450
Szostok
Wrong
both rated, 190 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobkow 0% vs Szostok 40%
Szostok
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobkow 20% vs Szostok 50%
Szostok
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobkow -5 · Szostok +1
Sobkow
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Szostok) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szostok form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobkow 2.38 / Szostok 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Szostok)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13119927
Sobkow2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 10 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Szostok1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 315 of 486
Up 2–0, closes it94% 122 of 130
Up 1–0, closes it80% 203 of 254
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSobkow2wins
AwaySzostok2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobkown = 0, below the 3 needed
AwaySzostok50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobkow0Szostok4n = 4Szostok took 4 of 4
S2Sobkow3Szostok1n = 4Sobkow took 3 of 4
S3Sobkow2Szostok2n = 4split evenly
S4Sobkow1Szostok2n = 3Szostok took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSobkowSzostokSobkow − SzostokBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match35.235.5−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobkowSzostokBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 104 vs 919 / 156749%58.7%51 / 104 vs 919 / 1567Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.540.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzostokSobkow 2.38/Szostok 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Szostok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sobkow won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 13 · 06:55Z. Sobkow4291111113S. Szostok29116751
LSep 5 · 10:10Z. Sobkow25511631S. Szostok3911611113
WAug 23 · 09:00Z. Sobkow48711118113S. Szostok4111861152
LAug 23 · 04:30Z. Sobkow269890S. Szostok331111113
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 13 · 05:40Z. Sobkow2.381177111M. Lach1.5391111133LSep 13 · 04:10Z. Sobkow2.7511611952A. Cichocki1.40511311113LSep 13 · 03:00Z. Sobkow2.1010870J. Wieczerzak1.671211113LSep 12 · 14:40W. Urban1.801112117113Z. Sobkow1.9161461182LSep 12 · 13:30Z. Sobkow1.6111411982M. Paszkiewicz2.20711911113LSep 12 · 12:15P. Slosarczyk2.0081111113Z. Sobkow1.73117391WSep 12 · 11:00A. Cichocki1.44510111382Z. Sobkow2.631112511113LSep 12 · 09:25K. Juszczyk1.9210111113123Z. Sobkow1.721261311102WSep 12 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.3841191562Z. Sobkow1.531151113113LSep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.617111061M. Paszkiewicz2.2011712113
S. Szostok10
LSep 13 · 07:45A. Cichocki1.501111113S. Szostok2.507880WSep 13 · 06:05S. Szostok1.83111110113W. Wojtaszczyk1.83871271LSep 13 · 04:30S. Szostok1.83512851J. Wieczerzak1.83111011113LSep 13 · 03:50M. Lach2.10111166143S. Szostok1.67771111122LSep 11 · 16:20J. Pruszkowski1.74671111113S. Szostok1.9511115772WSep 11 · 15:30R. Skotniczny1.85711110S. Szostok1.801113133LSep 11 · 14:45S. Szostok1.601011101182P. Kurek2.10124127113WSep 11 · 13:10S. Szostok1.851111113G. Wichowski1.809770WSep 11 · 12:20P. Mecik2.7510911111S. Szostok1.3612115133WSep 11 · 11:05S. Szostok1.601111113P. Kurek2.108670
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