TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13118265
Played Sep 12Finished
Krzysztof Juszczyk
Home
1.92
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012116111313111210
Zbigniew Sobkow
Away
1.72
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:43 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Juszczyk to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Juszczyk above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 109 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Krzysztof Juszczyk at 63.3%
109 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Juszczyk 1–0 Zbigniew Sobkow Zbigniew Sobkow has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:43What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.72 (53%)
Sobkow
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Juszczyk 1431 vs Sobkow 1318
Juszczyk
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Juszczyk 40% vs Sobkow 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Juszczyk 50% vs Sobkow 30%
Juszczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Juszczyk -2 · Sobkow +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Juszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJuszczyk 1.92 / Sobkow 1.72
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Juszczyk)+6.7pp
TT Elite Series · #13118265
Juszczyk1.92
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 99 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back28% 33 of 120
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 66
Sobkow1.72
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 33 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it70% 23 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeJuszczyk1wins
AwaySobkow0wins
Juszczyk leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricJuszczykSobkowJ − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match41.035.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJuszczykSobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime655 / 1218 vs 49 / 9553.8%51.6%655 / 1218 vs 49 / 95Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JuszczykJuszczyk 1.92/Sobkow 1.72
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Juszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Juszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 12 · 03:25K. Juszczyk—81111113Z. Sobkow—118881
K. Juszczyk10
WSep 12 · 10:10W. Urban2.1071190K. Juszczyk1.671113113LSep 12 · 07:45K. Juszczyk1.3371090G. Sawicki3.251112113LSep 12 · 06:30K. Juszczyk2.20119111082A. Cichocki1.61511812113WSep 12 · 05:15K. Juszczyk1.53111129113M. Paszkiewicz2.3899111192LSep 12 · 04:10P. Slosarczyk2.6391111113K. Juszczyk1.44117671WSep 12 · 03:25K. Juszczyk1.7381111113Z. Sobkow2.00118881WSep 8 · 20:20R. Gajda2.1851160K. Juszczyk1.561113113WSep 8 · 19:35P. Kaczynski1.8651211982K. Juszczyk1.801110911113LSep 8 · 17:35M. Tkocz1.901011116113K. Juszczyk1.7512381132WSep 8 · 16:50S. Juzek2.3541113362K. Juszczyk1.481191111113
Z. Sobkow10
WSep 12 · 08:35P. Slosarczyk2.3841191562Z. Sobkow1.531151113113LSep 12 · 07:20Z. Sobkow1.617111061M. Paszkiewicz2.2011712113WSep 12 · 06:05G. Sawicki3.00641181Z. Sobkow1.3611114113LSep 12 · 03:25K. Juszczyk1.7381111113Z. Sobkow2.00118881LSep 11 · 14:40Z. Sobkow1.33111291062O. Sokolowski3.258101112113LSep 11 · 13:05Z. Sobkow2.103770O. Jadach1.671111113LSep 11 · 11:50Z. Sobkow1.7391271192J. Pelka2.001110119113WSep 11 · 10:10Z. Sobkow1.67811114163M. Baron2.10118711142LSep 11 · 09:00Z. Sobkow1.50711101172P. Slosarczyk2.50116129113WSep 11 · 07:45M. Baron2.10108110Z. Sobkow1.671211133
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