TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13110192
Played Sep 11Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10128111113––––
Zbigniew Sobkow
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:42 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeZbigniew Sobkow to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMariusz Baron above · Zbigniew Sobkow below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 65 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Zbigniew Sobkow at 56.6%
65 points played in total.
H2H Mariusz Baron 1–1 Zbigniew Sobkow Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:42What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sobkow
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Baron 1296 vs Sobkow 1373
Sobkow
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 20% vs Sobkow 40%
Sobkow
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 40% vs Sobkow 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -3 · Sobkow -1
Baron
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Sobkow)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobkow form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.10 / Sobkow 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Sobkow)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13110192
Baron2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 196 of 497
Down 0–1, comes back24% 66 of 274
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 141
Sobkow1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 30 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it88% 15 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it72% 21 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBaron1wins
AwaySobkow1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBaronSobkowB − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match44.547.0−2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronSobkowBasisWin rate · lifetime871 / 1811 vs 45 / 8448.1%53.6%871 / 1811 vs 45 / 84Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobkowBaron 2.10/Sobkow 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Sobkow · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sobkow won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJun 19 · 11:50M. Baron—661112123Z. Sobkow—1111710102
LJun 19 · 03:50M. Baron—41111792Z. Sobkow—115711113
M. Baron10
LSep 11 · 06:30M. Baron1.73912211102J. Pelka2.001110119123LSep 11 · 05:15M. Baron1.6769111142P. Slosarczyk2.10111189113LSep 11 · 04:10O. Jadach1.57101213113M. Baron2.2512101101WSep 11 · 03:25M. Baron1.8311711113O. Sokolowski1.83811661LSep 10 · 02:00M. Baron2.208950M. Lebek1.571111113LSep 10 · 24:45M. Baron2.2351181592P. Adamus1.531171113113WSep 9 · 23:35M. Baron1.83111111123O. Sokolowski1.868913101WSep 9 · 22:25P. Slosarczyk2.07311101152M. Baron1.62118129113LSep 9 · 21:35M. Baron1.66411391A. Burkacki2.0111511113WSep 9 · 20:20W. Jozala2.604850M. Baron1.411111113
Z. Sobkow10
LSep 11 · 06:55O. Jadach1.73115116113Z. Sobkow2.0091151192WSep 11 · 06:05Z. Sobkow1.501111123O. Sokolowski2.5016100LSep 11 · 04:30Z. Sobkow1.50131111452P. Slosarczyk2.501113611113WSep 11 · 03:50J. Pelka2.201111911132Z. Sobkow1.61461113153LSep 6 · 13:55Z. Sobkow1.834810J. Wieczerzak1.831111113LSep 6 · 12:40Z. Sobkow2.3891270P. Jedrzejak1.531114113WSep 6 · 11:25Z. Sobkow1.7371111113J. Jesiek2.00119581LSep 6 · 10:10P. Gumulinski2.11117119113Z. Sobkow1.6281161192WSep 6 · 09:25Z. Sobkow1.5011811113O. Vincenec2.50611951LSep 6 · 07:45Z. Sobkow1.8011991592P. Gumulinski1.915111113113
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