TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13104705
Played Sep 10Finished
Mariusz Baron
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911511––––
Marian Lebek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:41 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
55 points played in total.
Set by set
811911511––––
H2H Mariusz Baron 21–35 Marian Lebek Mariusz Baron has won 21 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:41What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Lebek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-35 in 56
Lebek
Correct
gap of 14 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Baron 1327 vs Lebek 1417
Lebek
Correct
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Baron 60% vs Lebek 40%
Baron
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Baron 40% vs Lebek 60%
Lebek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Baron -1 · Lebek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBaron 2.20 / Lebek 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Lebek)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13104705
Baron2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 195 of 491
Down 0–1, comes back24% 66 of 271
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 140
Lebek1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 236 of 386
Up 2–0, closes it96% 153 of 160
Up 1–0, closes it81% 205 of 254
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBaron4wins
AwayLebek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBaron57.1%4 of 7
AwayLebek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Baron7Lebek3n = 10Baron took 7 of 10
S2Baron5Lebek5n = 10split evenly
S3Baron4Lebek6n = 10Lebek took 6 of 10
S4Baron3Lebek4n = 7Lebek took 4 of 7
S5Baron1Lebek3n = 4Lebek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBaronLebekB − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.037.6−0.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBaronLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime876 / 1815 vs 847 / 146048.3%58%876 / 1815 vs 847 / 1460Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.837.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekBaron 2.20/Lebek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.6%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 08:20M. Baron—6990M. Lebek—1111113
WAug 20 · 02:20M. Baron—1111123M. Lebek—49100
WAug 13 · 03:10M. Baron—111175113M. Lebek—78111162
LAug 12 · 22:50M. Baron—11591162M. Lebek—711117113
WAug 6 · 01:35M. Baron—1111113M. Lebek—6490
LJul 31 · 24:45M. Baron—118711102M. Lebek—911116123
WJun 25 · 04:50M. Baron—11117113M. Lebek—751191
LJun 24 · 21:10M. Baron—471171M. Lebek—11118113
LJun 10 · 22:00M. Baron—11117872M. Lebek—871111113
LFeb 25 · 02:35M. Baron—691161M. Lebek—11118113
M. Baron10
LSep 10 · 24:45M. Baron2.2351181592P. Adamus1.531171113113WSep 9 · 23:35M. Baron1.83111111123O. Sokolowski1.868913101WSep 9 · 22:25P. Slosarczyk2.07311101152M. Baron1.62118129113LSep 9 · 21:35M. Baron1.66411391A. Burkacki2.0111511113WSep 9 · 20:20W. Jozala2.604850M. Baron1.411111113LSep 9 · 19:35A. Ruszkiewicz2.0911119113M. Baron1.61871171LSep 9 · 17:35M. Koczyba1.55471114113M. Baron2.30111151262LSep 9 · 16:50S. Krupa1.6711814113M. Baron2.005111281WSep 9 · 15:10W. Pytlas1.5671141152M. Baron2.17118113113LSep 8 · 17:05M. Baron2.358980J. Pruszkowski1.521111113
M. Lebek10
WSep 10 · 01:10P. Slosarczyk2.903680M. Lebek1.331111113WSep 10 · 24:25M. Lebek1.35111148113A. Burkacki2.8057111172LSep 9 · 22:50M. Lebek1.529590O. Sokolowski2.301111113LSep 9 · 22:00P. Adamus2.051111113M. Lebek1.635680LSep 9 · 08:45M. Lebek1.45117691O. Sokolowski2.4371111113WSep 9 · 07:10M. Lebek1.7051111113M. Sikon2.00115491WSep 9 · 06:00M. Lebek1.701112113M. Adamus1.9581090WSep 9 · 04:25M. Lebek1.321111113J. Kaczmarek2.906590WSep 9 · 03:10M. Lebek1.4611129113M. Paszkiewicz2.506101161LSep 9 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.72711115113M. Lebek1.9211851172
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.