TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13099703
Played Sep 9Finished
Marian Lebek
Home
1.32
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116115119––––
Jakub Kaczmarek
Away
2.90
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:49 and never touched — 66.2% is still 66.2%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
66.2%
66.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
116115119––––
H2H Marian Lebek 56–19 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 19 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.32 (69%)
Lebek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-19 in 75
Lebek
Correct
gap of 37 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lebek 1410 vs Kaczmarek 1285
Lebek
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lebek 40% vs Kaczmarek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lebek 30% vs Kaczmarek 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lebek +1 · Kaczmarek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (40%) is below what odds imply (76%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLebek 1.32 / Kaczmarek 2.90
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Lebek)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13099703
Lebek1.32
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 236 of 386
Up 2–0, closes it96% 153 of 160
Up 1–0, closes it81% 205 of 254
Kaczmarek2.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 166 of 501
Down 0–1, comes back18% 58 of 320
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 178
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLebek8wins
AwayKaczmarek2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLebek80%8 of 10
AwayKaczmarekn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lebek10Kaczmarek0n = 10Lebek took 10 of 10
S2Lebek8Kaczmarek2n = 10Lebek took 8 of 10
S3Lebek8Kaczmarek2n = 10Lebek took 8 of 10
S4Lebek1Kaczmarek2n = 3Kaczmarek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home770%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLebekKaczmarekL − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match35.225.5+9.7per matchSweeps70+73–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLebekKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime842 / 1452 vs 473 / 129558%36.5%842 / 1452 vs 473 / 1295Avg sets wonper match2.21.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.935.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekLebek 1.32/Kaczmarek 2.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lebek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 07:10M. Lebek—1111113J. Kaczmarek—6880
WAug 28 · 04:25M. Lebek—11512113J. Kaczmarek—2111091
WAug 26 · 03:10M. Lebek—1111113J. Kaczmarek—5330
LAug 13 · 05:50M. Lebek—11116662J. Kaczmarek—861111113
WAug 12 · 05:35M. Lebek—1111113J. Kaczmarek—4740
WAug 6 · 07:35M. Lebek—1112113J. Kaczmarek—91070
LJul 30 · 05:50M. Lebek—1179141J. Kaczmarek—81111163
WJul 23 · 03:35M. Lebek—1111113J. Kaczmarek—9460
WJul 17 · 07:35M. Lebek—1111113J. Kaczmarek—8440
WJul 17 · 01:35M. Lebek—1111113J. Kaczmarek—8490
M. Lebek10
WSep 9 · 03:10M. Lebek1.4611129113M. Paszkiewicz2.506101161LSep 9 · 02:00M. Tkocz1.72711115113M. Lebek1.9211851172LSep 9 · 01:10M. Sikon3.0511912113M. Lebek1.296111061WSep 9 · 24:25M. Lebek1.4511211113O. Sokolowski2.44611661LSep 8 · 22:50M. Lebek1.50141171262M. Paszkiewicz2.4012131110113LSep 8 · 22:00M. Adamus2.43116711113M. Lebek1.4591111662LSep 4 · 08:20M. Lebek1.36117891Y. Fomin2.8541111113WSep 4 · 06:45M. Paszkiewicz2.805680M. Lebek1.371111113LSep 4 · 06:00P. Mecik3.1011119113M. Lebek1.33861181LSep 4 · 05:10M. Lebek1.5066111182W. Urban2.35111157113
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 9 · 03:35J. Kaczmarek2.1411811113O. Sokolowski1.58911871WSep 8 · 08:45J. Kaczmarek1.45111211113M. Cesarz2.45714971LSep 8 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.70159441R. Skotniczny1.37131111113LSep 8 · 06:00J. Kaczmarek1.86511761A. Ruszkiewicz1.8011711113LSep 8 · 04:25J. Kaczmarek3.20116821K. Hetnar1.2791111113LSep 8 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.18811961M. Adamus1.5611611113LSep 7 · 14:40J. Kaczmarek2.2011181241P. Przewlocki1.6182014113LSep 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.00116681M. Adamus1.7371111113LSep 7 · 11:50J. Kaczmarek4.008550K. Hetnar1.221111113WSep 7 · 10:10J. Kaczmarek2.101110911113W. Urban1.6761211772
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