TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13098016
Played Sep 8Finished
Mariusz Adamus
Home
2.43
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119611711116116
Marian Lebek
Away
1.45
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarian Lebek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
89 points played in total.
Set by set
119611711116116
H2H Mariusz Adamus 32–37 Marian Lebek Mariusz Adamus has won 32 of their 69 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:40What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Lebek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-37 in 69
Lebek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 69, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adamus 1311 vs Lebek 1455
Lebek
Wrong
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adamus 40% vs Lebek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adamus 40% vs Lebek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Adamus +1 · Lebek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Lebek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lebek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdamus 2.43 / Lebek 1.45
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Lebek)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13098016
Adamus2.43
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 178 of 430
Down 0–1, comes back23% 51 of 223
Down 0–2, comes back10% 12 of 119
Lebek1.45
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 238 of 389
Up 2–0, closes it96% 154 of 161
Up 1–0, closes it81% 206 of 254
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdamus3wins
AwayLebek7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLebek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdamus100%3 of 3
AwayLebek100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adamus3Lebek7n = 10Lebek took 7 of 10
S2Adamus2Lebek8n = 10Lebek took 8 of 10
S3Adamus5Lebek5n = 10split evenly
S4Adamus4Lebek3n = 7Adamus took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamusLebekA − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.536.7−4.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamusLebekBasisWin rate · lifetime791 / 1631 vs 849 / 146148.5%58.1%791 / 1631 vs 849 / 1461Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LebekAdamus 2.43/Lebek 1.45
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.8%
Lebek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Adamus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 02:20M. Adamus—481171M. Lebek—11117113
WAug 13 · 08:20M. Adamus—11611113M. Lebek—511671
LAug 13 · 02:20M. Adamus—81261152M. Lebek—1110113113
LAug 12 · 04:50M. Adamus—681281M. Lebek—111110113
LJul 31 · 07:10M. Adamus—89100M. Lebek—1111123
WJul 30 · 08:50M. Adamus—11811113M. Lebek—611891
LJul 8 · 03:35M. Adamus—3111151M. Lebek—11713113
WJun 24 · 22:50M. Adamus—11611113M. Lebek—811681
LJun 16 · 22:25M. Adamus—8880M. Lebek—1111113
LJun 11 · 04:00M. Adamus—6850M. Lebek—1111113
M. Adamus10
LSep 8 · 23:10M. Adamus1.8088111152O. Sokolowski1.86111155113WSep 8 · 08:20A. Ruszkiewicz2.15511212102M. Adamus1.601171110123LSep 8 · 07:35M. Cesarz2.951111610113M. Adamus1.3587111272LSep 8 · 05:35K. Hetnar1.441112123M. Adamus2.50410100LSep 8 · 04:50R. Skotniczny1.57111111113M. Adamus2.16913461WSep 8 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.18811961M. Adamus1.5611611113LSep 7 · 13:55W. Urban1.80111177113M. Adamus1.9167111162WSep 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.00116681M. Adamus1.7371111113LSep 7 · 12:15M. Adamus2.0011114982P. Przewlocki1.73641111113LSep 7 · 10:35M. Adamus1.8013960R. Niemiec1.911511113
M. Lebek10
LSep 4 · 08:20M. Lebek1.36117891Y. Fomin2.8541111113WSep 4 · 06:45M. Paszkiewicz2.805680M. Lebek1.371111113LSep 4 · 06:00P. Mecik3.1011119113M. Lebek1.33861181LSep 4 · 05:10M. Lebek1.5066111182W. Urban2.35111157113WSep 4 · 04:00M. Lebek1.261111113A. Ruszkiewicz3.503450WSep 4 · 02:20M. Lebek1.921111113M. Tkocz1.767960LSep 4 · 24:45K. Hetnar1.681011811113M. Lebek2.0312211852LSep 4 · 24:00A. Ruszkiewicz3.601181011113M. Lebek1.2381112952WSep 3 · 23:10M. Lebek1.3511511113G. Jurowicz2.95611171WSep 3 · 22:00M. Lebek2.0511113113K. Adamus1.66961181
Upcoming Matches
M. Adamus
Sep 9 · 24:00M. Adamus1.53M. Sikon2.23—Sep 9 · 24:45M. Adamus2.55M. Tkocz1.41—Sep 9 · 02:20M. Adamus1.80M. Paszkiewicz1.90—Sep 9 · 04:00M. Adamus1.57M. Sikon2.16—Sep 9 · 05:10M. Adamus1.80O. Sokolowski1.84—Sep 9 · 06:00M. Adamus2.36M. Lebek1.48—Sep 9 · 06:45M. Adamus1.55J. Kaczmarek2.21—Sep 9 · 08:20M. Adamus1.78M. Paszkiewicz1.86—
M. Lebek
Sep 8 · 22:50M. Lebek1.50M. Paszkiewicz2.40—Sep 9 · 24:25M. Lebek1.45O. Sokolowski2.44—Sep 9 · 01:10M. Lebek1.29M. Sikon3.05—Sep 9 · 02:00M. Lebek1.92M. Tkocz1.72—Sep 9 · 03:10M. Lebek1.46M. Paszkiewicz2.50—Sep 9 · 04:25M. Lebek1.32J. Kaczmarek2.90—Sep 9 · 06:00M. Lebek1.48M. Adamus2.36—Sep 9 · 07:10M. Lebek1.31M. Sikon2.95—Sep 9 · 08:45M. Lebek1.45O. Sokolowski2.43—Sep 9 · 22:00M. Lebek—P. Adamus——
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