TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13094796
Played Sep 8Finished
Milosz Cesarz
Home
2.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1181176111012117
Mariusz Adamus
Away
1.35
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:26 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeMariusz Adamus to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
1181176111012117
H2H Milosz Cesarz 12–16 Mariusz Adamus Milosz Cesarz has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:26What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.35 (69%)
Adamus
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-16 in 28
Adamus
Wrong
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cesarz 1133 vs Adamus 1298
Adamus
Wrong
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cesarz 20% vs Adamus 40%
Adamus
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cesarz 10% vs Adamus 50%
Adamus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cesarz -1 · Adamus -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Adamus) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamus form (40%) is below what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCesarz 2.95 / Adamus 1.35
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Adamus)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13094796
Cesarz2.95
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog23% won 59 of 257
Down 0–1, comes back11% 20 of 183
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 124
Adamus1.35
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 227 of 414
Up 2–0, closes it88% 86 of 98
Up 1–0, closes it72% 154 of 214
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCesarz5wins
AwayAdamus5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCesarz83.3%5 of 6
AwayAdamus100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cesarz6Adamus4n = 10Cesarz took 6 of 10
S2Cesarz6Adamus4n = 10Cesarz took 6 of 10
S3Cesarz4Adamus6n = 10Adamus took 6 of 10
S4Cesarz5Adamus3n = 8Cesarz took 5 of 8
S5Cesarz1Adamus3n = 4Adamus took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCesarzAdamusC − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.340.9+0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCesarzAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 542 vs 790 / 163028%48.5%152 / 542 vs 790 / 1630Avg sets wonper match1.42.0per matchAvg pointsper match33.439.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamusCesarz 2.95/Adamus 1.35
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.8%
Adamus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cesarz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 07:35M. Cesarz—1111610113M. Adamus—87111272
WAug 21 · 18:55M. Cesarz—11811123M. Adamus—9114101
WAug 4 · 08:00M. Cesarz—111111113M. Adamus—913771
LJul 31 · 05:30M. Cesarz—79141172M. Adamus—1111129113
WJul 21 · 07:10M. Cesarz—12117113M. Adamus—1091141
LMay 19 · 04:50M. Cesarz—811911112M. Adamus—117119133
LMay 12 · 05:35M. Cesarz—8113111M. Adamus—11811133
LApr 28 · 05:10M. Cesarz—11850M. Adamus—1311113
WApr 21 · 06:25M. Cesarz—1211113M. Adamus—10590
LApr 18 · 04:00M. Cesarz—11139782M. Adamus—9111111113
M. Cesarz10
LSep 8 · 06:25R. Skotniczny1.1981111113M. Cesarz3.80116541WSep 8 · 05:10A. Ruszkiewicz1.508890M. Cesarz2.401111113LSep 8 · 03:35K. Hetnar1.141111113M. Cesarz4.509640LSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz4.554970P. Adamus1.151111113LSep 1 · 06:45P. Gumulinski1.258111216153M. Cesarz3.451181414132LSep 1 · 06:00A. Ruszkiewicz1.58111111113M. Cesarz2.19613691LSep 1 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.9598100J. Kaczmarek1.351111123LSep 1 · 04:00M. Cesarz3.80146771R. Idaczyk1.21121111113LAug 27 · 08:20M. Cesarz5.7011491192M. Lebek1.09511119113LAug 27 · 06:45Y. Fomin1.30711511113M. Cesarz3.3011911692
M. Adamus10
WSep 8 · 08:20A. Ruszkiewicz2.15511212102M. Adamus1.601171110123LSep 8 · 05:35K. Hetnar1.441112123M. Adamus2.50410100LSep 8 · 04:50R. Skotniczny1.57111111113M. Adamus2.16913461WSep 8 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.18811961M. Adamus1.5611611113LSep 7 · 13:55W. Urban1.80111177113M. Adamus1.9167111162WSep 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.00116681M. Adamus1.7371111113LSep 7 · 12:15M. Adamus2.0011114982P. Przewlocki1.73641111113LSep 7 · 10:35M. Adamus1.8013960R. Niemiec1.911511113WSep 7 · 09:50K. Hetnar1.61511119102M. Adamus2.20115611123WSep 7 · 08:35M. Adamus1.6711119113P. Przewlocki2.10591161
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