TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13094271
Played Sep 8Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191113114116––
Mariusz Adamus
Away
2.16
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:03 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
1191113114116––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 19–16 Mariusz Adamus Mariusz Adamus has won 16 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:03What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-16 in 35
Skotniczny
Correct
gap of 3 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1460 vs Adamus 1332
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 80% vs Adamus 40%
Skotniczny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 70% vs Adamus 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +3 · Adamus +1
Skotniczny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skotniczny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.57 / Adamus 2.16
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Skotniczny)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13094271
Skotniczny1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 214 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it96% 114 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it83% 164 of 198
Adamus2.16
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 178 of 430
Down 0–1, comes back23% 51 of 223
Down 0–2, comes back10% 12 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkotniczny7wins
AwayAdamus3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSkotniczny leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkotniczny66.7%4 of 6
AwayAdamus25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skotniczny6Adamus4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S2Skotniczny6Adamus4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S3Skotniczny6Adamus4n = 10Skotniczny took 6 of 10
S4Skotniczny3Adamus4n = 7Adamus took 4 of 7
S5Skotniczny3Adamus1n = 4Skotniczny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkotnicznyAdamusS − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.135.1+5.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyAdamusBasisWin rate · lifetime581 / 1006 vs 790 / 162757.8%48.6%581 / 1006 vs 790 / 1627Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.57/Adamus 2.16
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.1%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 12:45R. Skotniczny—711129113M. Adamus—119101162
WAug 27 · 10:20R. Skotniczny—1111113M. Adamus—6450
LAug 3 · 15:05R. Skotniczny—1158101M. Adamus—71111123
LAug 3 · 09:05R. Skotniczny—111198102M. Adamus—861111123
WJun 19 · 11:55R. Skotniczny—711114123M. Adamus—119811102
WJun 19 · 05:55R. Skotniczny—116811113M. Adamus—91111132
WJun 12 · 11:55R. Skotniczny—91111113M. Adamus—114781
WJun 12 · 05:55R. Skotniczny—11911113M. Adamus—511861
WMay 11 · 05:55R. Skotniczny—1111113M. Adamus—9670
LOct 25 · 06:45R. Skotniczny—88100M. Adamus—1111123
R. Skotniczny10
LSep 8 · 04:00A. Ruszkiewicz2.451111123R. Skotniczny1.4737100WSep 7 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.4581211113W. Tobiasz2.551110731WSep 7 · 15:05Y. Fomin2.401110911102R. Skotniczny1.50612116123WSep 7 · 14:20P. Mecik3.30711581R. Skotniczny1.2711811113LSep 7 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.716690S. Szostok2.001111113WSep 7 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.601111113G. Wichowski2.102860WSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.25411911113W. Tobiasz3.5011711532WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113LSep 7 · 08:20G. Wichowski1.91111111113R. Skotniczny1.77139981LSep 7 · 07:30R. Skotniczny1.8511891142S. Szostok1.85511118113
M. Adamus10
WSep 8 · 03:10J. Kaczmarek2.18811961M. Adamus1.5611611113LSep 7 · 13:55W. Urban1.80111177113M. Adamus1.9167111162WSep 7 · 13:05J. Kaczmarek2.00116681M. Adamus1.7371111113LSep 7 · 12:15M. Adamus2.0011114982P. Przewlocki1.73641111113LSep 7 · 10:35M. Adamus1.8013960R. Niemiec1.911511113WSep 7 · 09:50K. Hetnar1.61511119102M. Adamus2.20115611123WSep 7 · 08:35M. Adamus1.6711119113P. Przewlocki2.10591161WSep 7 · 06:55M. Adamus2.3851111123J. Pruszkowski1.531197101WSep 7 · 05:40M. Adamus2.101113113J. Nowak1.6761130WSep 7 · 04:10M. Adamus1.83131178113K. Schaniel1.83116111162
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