TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13094361
Played Sep 8Finished
Rafal Skotniczny
Home
1.19
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811116115114––
Milosz Cesarz
Away
3.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:46 and never touched — 80.3% is still 80.3%
Graded at full timeRafal Skotniczny to win
80.3%
80.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
67 points played in total.
Set by set
811116115114––
H2H Rafal Skotniczny 1–0 Milosz Cesarz Milosz Cesarz has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:46What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.19 (76%)
Skotniczny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skotniczny 1459 vs Cesarz 1114
Skotniczny
Correct
both rated, 345 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skotniczny 80% vs Cesarz 20%
Skotniczny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skotniczny 70% vs Cesarz 10%
Skotniczny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skotniczny +1 · Cesarz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Skotniczny) · live re-read · sealed at 80% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkotniczny 1.19 / Cesarz 3.80
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Skotniczny)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13094361
Skotniczny1.19
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 214 of 337
Up 2–0, closes it96% 114 of 119
Up 1–0, closes it83% 164 of 198
Cesarz3.80
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog23% won 59 of 257
Down 0–1, comes back11% 20 of 183
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSkotniczny1wins
AwayCesarz0wins
Skotniczny leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSkotnicznyCesarzS − CBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match41.026.0+15.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkotnicznyCesarzBasisWin rate · lifetime584 / 1009 vs 151 / 54157.9%27.9%584 / 1009 vs 151 / 541Avg sets wonper match2.11.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.533.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkotnicznySkotniczny 1.19/Cesarz 3.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79%
Skotniczny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skotniczny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 8 · 06:25R. Skotniczny—81111113M. Cesarz—116541
R. Skotniczny10
WSep 8 · 07:10J. Kaczmarek2.70159441R. Skotniczny1.37131111113WSep 8 · 04:50R. Skotniczny1.57111111113M. Adamus2.16913461LSep 8 · 04:00A. Ruszkiewicz2.451111123R. Skotniczny1.4737100WSep 7 · 16:40R. Skotniczny1.4581211113W. Tobiasz2.551110731WSep 7 · 15:05Y. Fomin2.401110911102R. Skotniczny1.50612116123WSep 7 · 14:20P. Mecik3.30711581R. Skotniczny1.2711811113LSep 7 · 13:30R. Skotniczny1.716690S. Szostok2.001111113WSep 7 · 12:20R. Skotniczny1.601111113G. Wichowski2.102860WSep 7 · 10:40R. Skotniczny1.25411911113W. Tobiasz3.5011711532WSep 7 · 09:05Y. Fomin2.109880R. Skotniczny1.651111113
M. Cesarz10
WSep 8 · 05:10A. Ruszkiewicz1.508890M. Cesarz2.401111113LSep 8 · 03:35K. Hetnar1.141111113M. Cesarz4.509640LSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz4.554970P. Adamus1.151111113LSep 1 · 06:45P. Gumulinski1.258111216153M. Cesarz3.451181414132LSep 1 · 06:00A. Ruszkiewicz1.58111111113M. Cesarz2.19613691LSep 1 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.9598100J. Kaczmarek1.351111123LSep 1 · 04:00M. Cesarz3.80146771R. Idaczyk1.21121111113LAug 27 · 08:20M. Cesarz5.7011491192M. Lebek1.09511119113LAug 27 · 06:45Y. Fomin1.30711511113M. Cesarz3.3011911692LAug 27 · 06:00P. Kurek1.251111113M. Cesarz3.609860
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