TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13028596
Played Aug 27Finished
Pawel Kurek
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118116––––
Milosz Cesarz
Away
3.60
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:39 and never touched — 70.2% is still 70.2%
Graded at full timePawel Kurek to win
70.2%
70.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
119118116––––
H2H Pawel Kurek 7–2 Milosz Cesarz Milosz Cesarz has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 04:39What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (74%)
Kurek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Kurek
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurek 1396 vs Cesarz 1123
Kurek
Correct
both rated, 273 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurek 80% vs Cesarz 20%
Kurek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurek 70% vs Cesarz 10%
Kurek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurek -1 · Cesarz -3
Cesarz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Kurek) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurek 1.25 / Cesarz 3.60
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Kurek)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13028596
Kurek1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite66% won 188 of 286
Up 2–0, closes it94% 93 of 99
Up 1–0, closes it85% 136 of 161
Cesarz3.60
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog25% won 68 of 271
Down 0–1, comes back11% 20 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKurek7wins
AwayCesarz2wins
Kurek leads 7–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurek85.7%6 of 7
AwayCesarzn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurek7Cesarz2n = 9Kurek took 7 of 9
S2Kurek8Cesarz1n = 9Kurek took 8 of 9
S3Kurek6Cesarz3n = 9Kurek took 6 of 9
S4Kurek2Cesarz2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home556%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKurekCesarzK − CBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match34.825.2+9.6per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurekCesarzBasisWin rate · lifetime354 / 712 vs 152 / 54349.7%28%354 / 712 vs 152 / 543Avg sets wonper match2.01.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.433.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurekKurek 1.25/Cesarz 3.60
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.6%
Kurek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kurek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 27 · 06:00P. Kurek—1111113M. Cesarz—9860
WAug 18 · 05:10P. Kurek—71111113M. Cesarz—114381
WJun 26 · 04:25P. Kurek—1111113M. Cesarz—3760
LJun 23 · 21:00P. Kurek—1171271M. Cesarz—41114113
WJun 16 · 15:50P. Kurek—1311113M. Cesarz—11450
WMay 26 · 03:10P. Kurek—1111113M. Cesarz—4670
LMay 12 · 08:20P. Kurek—911731M. Cesarz—11811113
WMay 5 · 04:50P. Kurek—11116113M. Cesarz—391151
WFeb 21 · 09:25P. Kurek—1111113M. Cesarz—3580
P. Kurek10
LSep 7 · 04:40G. Marud1.8571111113P. Kurek1.85116651WSep 7 · 03:55M. Sikon2.8081411101P. Kurek1.38111213123LSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 01:10L. Oracz1.451111113P. Kurek2.453280WSep 6 · 23:30O. Jadach1.6071112682P. Kurek2.101191011113WSep 6 · 22:40G. Marud1.8681191132P. Kurek1.80118119113WSep 6 · 21:55M. Sikon2.356660P. Kurek1.501111113WSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113LSep 6 · 19:10O. Jadach1.55119511113P. Kurek2.2581111782LSep 6 · 17:30L. Oracz1.371112511113P. Kurek2.7561411662
M. Cesarz10
LSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz4.554970P. Adamus1.151111113LSep 1 · 06:45P. Gumulinski1.258111216153M. Cesarz3.451181414132LSep 1 · 06:00A. Ruszkiewicz1.58111111113M. Cesarz2.19613691LSep 1 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.9598100J. Kaczmarek1.351111123LSep 1 · 04:00M. Cesarz3.80146771R. Idaczyk1.21121111113LAug 27 · 08:20M. Cesarz5.7011491192M. Lebek1.09511119113LAug 27 · 06:45Y. Fomin1.30711511113M. Cesarz3.3011911692LAug 27 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.25111250O. Sokolowski1.571314113LAug 27 · 04:00M. Cesarz2.554370W. Jozala1.421111113LAug 25 · 05:05M. Cesarz2.507550P. Slosarczyk1.441111113
Upcoming Matches
P. Kurek
M. Cesarz
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