TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13052218
Played Sep 1Finished
Milosz Cesarz
Home
3.80
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1412611711711––
Rafal Idaczyk
Away
1.21
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:15 and never touched — 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeRafal Idaczyk to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
1412611711711––
H2H Milosz Cesarz 7–14 Rafal Idaczyk Milosz Cesarz has won 7 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:15What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.21 (76%)
Idaczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-14 in 21
Idaczyk
Correct
gap of 7 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cesarz 1123 vs Idaczyk 1361
Idaczyk
Correct
both rated, 238 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cesarz 0% vs Idaczyk 40%
Idaczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cesarz 10% vs Idaczyk 50%
Idaczyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cesarz -5 · Idaczyk +1
Cesarz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Idaczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Idaczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCesarz 3.80 / Idaczyk 1.21
Signal prob.20% / 80%
Edge (Idaczyk)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13052218
Cesarz3.80
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog25% won 66 of 265
Down 0–1, comes back11% 20 of 185
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 125
Idaczyk1.21
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 114 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it96% 70 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it80% 93 of 116
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCesarz3wins
AwayIdaczyk7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderIdaczyk leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCesarz66.7%2 of 3
AwayIdaczyk85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cesarz3Idaczyk7n = 10Idaczyk took 7 of 10
S2Cesarz4Idaczyk6n = 10Idaczyk took 6 of 10
S3Cesarz3Idaczyk7n = 10Idaczyk took 7 of 10
S4Cesarz3Idaczyk4n = 7Idaczyk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricCesarzIdaczykC − IBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.338.5−6.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCesarzIdaczykBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 543 vs 467 / 94828%49.3%152 / 543 vs 467 / 948Avg sets wonper match1.41.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.435.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
IdaczykCesarz 3.80/Idaczyk 1.21
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.8%
Idaczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Idaczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 12 · 05:35M. Cesarz—5111111123R. Idaczyk—118138102
LMay 26 · 04:50M. Cesarz—7111181R. Idaczyk—11139113
WMay 19 · 05:35M. Cesarz—11411113R. Idaczyk—511761
LApr 24 · 07:10M. Cesarz—411671R. Idaczyk—11911113
LApr 14 · 04:50M. Cesarz—9490R. Idaczyk—1111113
LApr 8 · 07:10M. Cesarz—6760R. Idaczyk—1111113
LMar 24 · 04:35M. Cesarz—7280R. Idaczyk—1111113
WMar 10 · 07:25M. Cesarz—11115113R. Idaczyk—961161
LMar 3 · 05:25M. Cesarz—411481R. Idaczyk—11811113
LFeb 24 · 06:35M. Cesarz—11911982R. Idaczyk—711811113
M. Cesarz10
LSep 1 · 08:20M. Cesarz4.554970P. Adamus1.151111113LSep 1 · 06:45P. Gumulinski1.258111216153M. Cesarz3.451181414132LSep 1 · 06:00A. Ruszkiewicz1.58111111113M. Cesarz2.19613691LSep 1 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.9598100J. Kaczmarek1.351111123LAug 27 · 08:20M. Cesarz5.7011491192M. Lebek1.09511119113LAug 27 · 06:45Y. Fomin1.30711511113M. Cesarz3.3011911692LAug 27 · 06:00P. Kurek1.251111113M. Cesarz3.609860LAug 27 · 05:10M. Cesarz2.25111250O. Sokolowski1.571314113LAug 27 · 04:00M. Cesarz2.554370W. Jozala1.421111113LAug 25 · 05:05M. Cesarz2.507550P. Slosarczyk1.441111113
R. Idaczyk10
WSep 6 · 08:00G. Sawicki1.8511911362R. Idaczyk1.80911911113WSep 6 · 07:10W. Pytlas1.494570R. Idaczyk2.451111113WSep 6 · 06:25R. Idaczyk1.8581111123P. Slosarczyk1.851135101WSep 6 · 04:50R. Idaczyk2.951111153K. Hetnar1.3554130LSep 6 · 04:00K. Juszczyk1.4011813133R. Idaczyk2.7561111111WSep 5 · 16:20R. Idaczyk2.01121111113R. Piechnik1.69147981WSep 5 · 15:05R. Idaczyk2.37881111113J. Jesiek1.5211117752LSep 5 · 13:55R. Idaczyk1.607114101W. Buczynski2.1011911123LSep 5 · 12:45M. Lach1.301111113R. Idaczyk3.103720LSep 5 · 11:55R. Idaczyk1.85491181P. Slosarczyk1.8211118113
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